US election result may not be so cut and dried

Nothing can be taken for granted at this stage — what the fundamentals point to and what the polling currently suggests are materially at odds. Julia Clark and Chris Jackson report

Just over a week to US election day and it looks like the race for the White House is all but over.

However, if it looks like pollsters are increasingly on the wrong side of history (Colombia’s referendum, Brexit, the 2015 British election, and the Scottish referendum) it could be because they need to triple- and even quadruple-check their assumptions before making blithe pronouncements.