Constituency profile: Dublin Fingal

Dublin North, now called Dublin Fingal, was witness to one of the greatest wipe-outs of the Fianna Fáil-Green Coalition in 2011.

That time out, the Fianna Fáil share of the vote collapsed from 42% to 15.5%. The party could have won a seat in 2011, if it opted for a single-candidate strategy.

Both its two outgoing TDs, Darragh O’Brien and Michael Kennedy, stood for re-election and lost. Mr Sargent fell from 16.7% to 8.5% of first preferences and retired from politics after losing his seat.

Mr O’Brien is the front-runner for Fianna Fáil this time and given his high-profile Seanad performance and strong local presence, he should be confident of a seat.

He is joined on the ticket by the very impressive Lorraine Clifford-Lee, who has been given a very prominent role in the party’s national campaign. Ms Clifford-Lee is one to watch as she could yet pull off a surprise.

Fine Gael’s standard bearer here is the party’s deputy leader, James Reilly. Humiliated out of the health portfolio in 2014, he since then has taken to ensuring his re-election with ghusto.

His running mate is TD Alan Farrell, who benefited from strong vote management in 2011, but one Fine Gael TD is almost certain to lose out this time. Given his Cabinet role and longer standing as a TD, Mr Reilly appears to have the edge.

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Clare Daly is the other stand-out TD in this constituency and should be a shoe-in for re-election after her very impressive performance in the Dáil since 2011.

Her abrasive style means she is not everyone’s cup of tea, but her leading role in highlighting the penalty points controversy has won her many plaudits.

Sinn Féin are entrusting councillor Louise O’Reilly with being the party’s sole representative and she is a bookies’ favourite to take the last seat. Given the strong left-wing vote throughout the constituency, Ms O’Reilly looks set to capitalise on the Sinn Féin brand even with Daly here.

For Labour, Brendan Ryan is the man hoping to defy the national backlash and retain his seat.

Mr Ryan played a crucial role in the Government’s sale of its stake in Aer Lingus and he has a loyal base here, which we feel will be enough to see him returned.

Overall, we see the seats going to Mr Reilly, Mr O’Brien, Ms Daly, and Mr Ryan with Ms O’Reilly of Sinn Fein edging out Ms Clifford-Lee for the last.