Enda Kenny is biggest threat to Fine Gael election victory

In the event of a hung Dáil and a second election, Fine Gael would have to ask itself how it allowed that to happen. The answer, writes Political Editor Daniel McConnell, is Enda Kenny

The latest installment in the Michael Lowry saga has brought Enda Kenny’s leadership into focus.

By refusing to rule out the disgraced former minister from a post-election deal to form a government, the Taoiseach caused a firestorm, which was completely avoidable.

Still now, despite expressions of misgiving hordes of his own TDs and even ministers such as Leo Varadkar and Paschal Donohoe, Mr Kenny has left the door open to a deal with Lowry.

Such a failure to shut down questions around post-election deals is the latest example of why Mr Kenny is so tightly controlled by his handlers.

Once again, Mr Kenny has proved why he is the greatest threat to a Fine Gael election victory.

For all his energy, Mr Kenny has proven himself repeatedly capable of walking himself into immense trouble when in front the cameras.

His failure to shut down the Lowry talk has angered many in his own party who are frantically trying to save their seats.

Based on latest poll ratings, Fine Gael will return with 60 seats, which represents a loss of 16 since 2011 and eight from where the party stands now. The Labour Party stands to return with between nine and 12 seats.

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At that last election, Fine Gael and Labour took power with 113 seats.

That the two parties by themselves would not have enough to retain power after the election is incredible.

Such a slump would normally be the basis of a heave and we could see movement in both parties should they have a bad day at the office.

Stepping back for a moment, you have to ask yourself: How can the leader of a government in the fastest growing economy in Europe be so unpopular?

How can a leader whose Government got rid of the Troika not be sky-high in the polls?

How can the leader who has seen more than 100,000 full-time jobs created under his watch not be guaranteed re-election?

He is the leader who has just introduced free GP care for the under-sixes and over-70s and whose tax revenues are way ahead of target, the leader who has overseen the lowest jobless figures in seven years.

So why is Mr Kenny consistently the least popular leader in opinion polls when you consider all that has been achieved in this country since 2011?

He is incredibly energetic for a man of his age, indeed of any age.

He is assiduous in his personal interactions with his party colleagues, opponents, business leaders, and members of the public.

Mr Kenny is accessible by text to TDs and party handlers, and regularly finds time to connect with young Fine Gael officers.

He has also brought a welcome vitality to the office of Taoiseach that was in short supply in previous times. Such energy has certainly contributed to the uplift in the country’s fortunes.

And he has also managed to hold together, by and large, a Fine Gael party through the rockiest of rocky roads since becoming its leader in 2002, and more particularly since becoming Taoiseach in 2011.

So why is he not heralded as the greatest leader Fine Gael has ever had?

There are black marks against his name. While engaging on a personal level, Mr Kenny is a poor public speaker and regularly disappoints in his oratory delivery on the big set piece occasions.

He is no intellectual and while he has learned to spout a briefing note with some degree of confidence, he is also prone to spinning the odd fairytale, such as the one about the army having to surround ATMs a few years ago.

He has proven himself to be a narcissistic leader of Fine Gael, in need of constant praise and support from an ever dwindling number of ultra-loyalists within the party.

Critics within Fine Gael bemoan his ruthless abandoning of enemies in spite of their natural abilities.

TDs such as Michael Creed, John Deasy, and Eoghan Murphy have paid the price for opposing him.

They have, to date, been denied ministerial office as a result, although Mr Murphy has tempered his criticism of his leader in more recent times and would be expectant of a bump up next time.

We have been here before with Mr Kenny and his limitations as a leader.

We all remember well the botched 2010 heave which was brought about by a widely held belief that he was not up to the job of being leader and was unelectable as a taoiseach.

Most famous of the critics at the time was one Leo Varadkar.

Arguing for a change in leader, he said he would not want Mr Kenny to be at the end of the phone if a 3am financial crisis call came in from the Central Bank Governor.

Yes, Mr Kenny won the day in relation to the heave and has proven to be a successful Taoiseach in some ways, as reflected by the points above.

However, those lingering doubts as to his limitations expressed so pointedly by Varadkar persist and the simple truth is that very few people love Mr Kenny.

People don’t love him the way former taoisigh have been adored, even revered.

They don’t even fear him either.

He is cherished by those upon whom he has given preferment, but is tolerated by others within his own party.

But why is this important?

More and more, politics and elections have become presidential-style contests, centred on the leader of the day.

For example, Fianna Fáil’s three successful wins were mainly focused on the cult of Bertie Ahern.

Similarly, the British Labour Party’s three wins between 1997 and 2005 were down to the placing of Tony Blair at the very heart of all of their messaging.

Rightly or wrongly, for Fine Gael, such a strategy simply won’t work, because of Mr Kenny’s limitations as a leader.

Fine Gael itself acknowledges such failings. This is why we hear of him as more of a chairman rather than a chief executive.

Hence the reason, we have seen Kenny’s availability to the media in recent weeks reduced significantly, as reported in this newspaper.

Such a strategy is an admission that Mr Kenny is a drag on the ticket and if over exposed could damage the party’s chances of re-election even more.

There is a realisation that the people have made up their mind on Mr Kenny the leader and they are not overly impressed by what they see.

They like Fine Gael, they admire Michael Noonan and they see the likes of Donohoe, Varadkar, Simon Coveney, and Simon Harris as able officers who are right to aspire to be leader one day.

It is a remarkable state of affairs that a party faced by such weak opposition in the Dáil, and which has overseen a considerable recovery in economic terms, to have lost so much public support.

But it is most important as we are staring into a hung Dáil and the possibility of a second election this year.

If such a situation comes to pass, Fine Gael will have to ask itself how it allowed that to happen.

The answer will be simple: Enda Kenny.

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