Main issues facing the next Labour leader
THE main goal for Labour’s 11th leader will be to regain the trust of the party’s core voters.
But its new leader, young or old, male or female, will in their first few months face negotiations over another painful budget, at least two by-elections, pressure to provide relief to hard-pressed families, and a struggle to keep the fractured party united.
There’s now talk of a ‘dream team’, two figures who could unite the new and old generation in the parliamentary ranks. Nonetheless, a lot could happen between now and when Labour’s 5,000 members vote on a new leader on July 4.
The Coalition has agreed to take €2bn out of the economy next year as part of the bailout commitments. Will this now change? Households already face water charges in the New Year. Any more cuts to services, welfare provisions, or a hike in stealth taxes will only alienate remaining Labour supporters. Expect some talk of ‘rebalancing’ the budget options from the new leader.
The Coalition parties have hinted at future tax changes, but when? Promises of altering the rates or actual taxes will need to be brought forward if a new Labour leadership stands a chance of appealing to the public and embattled TDs. Joan Burton has been particularly vocal about helping the “squeezed middle classes”. Expect debate about changing rates of USC or more support for childcare costs.
The awkward and embarrassing mud-slinging between the young and older TDs this week may only get worse. The young Turks were criticised for their attempted coup, while veterans such as Pat Rabbitte and Ruairi Quinn are under pressure to move aside. But don’t expect them to hang up their hats too quickly. However, the newer TDs do want a chance to roll up their sleeves and get stuck into a junior ministerial role.
The elections of Roscommon’s Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan and Dublin South West’s Brian Hayes to Europe mean there will be two by-elections before the year’s end. Nobody likes campaigning at Christmas, so an autumn date is likely. Any new leader will be judged by Labour’s success or failure here.
Although there is talk of instability around Leinster House with Eamon Gilmore’s resignation, Labour would be unlikely to boost its support by withdrawing from Government under a new leader.
Sinn Féins want a general election. This is a sure sign for Labour to stay in power.
Changing the face of the leadership is not enough. Nearly every TD has this week called for a change in culture, a new vision. The new leader will be keen to get back lost support from workers, particularly those who suffered pay cuts in the public service. Will there be an overhaul of the Haddington Road deal? Unlikely, but the new party leader will have to court workers and unions.
This, or some semblance of it, is a key point which will be flagged during the leadership contest over the coming days and weeks. Labour’s new leader will be keen to ‘trade up’ with Fine Gael. The vague drift since the troika left must end, ministers say. So expect Gilmore’s successor to only agree to new targets with Enda Kenny that will suit a new Labour.
