FF profits from Ó Cuív fiasco

As Éamon Ó Cuív slips into obscurity, his party is making tentative gains, writes Dr Theresa Reidy

THE controversy generated by Éamon Ó Cuív’s minor rebellion in Fianna Fáil has all but drifted off the news agenda in the last week. Ó Cuív broke ranks with his party on their support for the fiscal treaty.

Ó Cuív has been vocal in his opposition to the treaty. He has form in this area, having previously voted against the Nice Treaty.

Ó Cuív faced no sanction from then taoiseach Bertie Ahern in 2001 when he publicly announced that he had voted no in the Nice I referendum, despite having been a junior minister in the government which had proposed the poll.

Ó Cuív’s re-emergence as the euro- sceptic wing of Fianna Fáil has not been without a cost on this occasion and in the past few weeks, his growing differences with his party have seen him replaced as deputy leader and effectively gagged for the duration of the referendum campaign.

Ó Cuív stepped down as deputy leader just before the party had its ard fheis at the start of March. In the ensuing weeks, he continued to make statements opposing the fiscal treaty and his suggestion that Fianna Fáil might form a future coalition with Sinn Féin seems to have finally spurred the Fianna Fáil leadership to take action against him.

In a somewhat bizarre series of events, Ó Cuív was contacted by party whip Seán Ó Fearghaíl, who outlined in writing Fianna Fáil’s rules and its agreed stance on the referendum.

Having marched to the top of the hill, Ó Cuív has slipped quietly back into obscurity.

It is now becoming possible to assess the impact Ó Cuív’s actions have had on the party and furthermore, on the wider membership and support base of Fianna Fáil.

The old adage that there is no such thing as bad publicity seems to hold in this case, and the opinion poll from last weekend had Fianna Fáil at its highest rating since before the Feb 2011 election.

It is now on 19% of the vote. Putting Fianna Fáil in the spotlight seems to have done the party no harm at all. Ó Cuív’s posturing on the treaty seems to have had a limited impact and he has certainly not swayed Fianna Fáil supporters to his point of view in any great numbers.

Talk of Fianna Fáil Nua and Ó Cuív as the natural inheritor of the party of his grandfather, Éamon de Valera, all seems a little premature now. This is very good news for Micheál Martin, whose position as party leader has been shored up by the series of developments.

Mr Martin has invested a great deal in the referendum campaign. He has strongly supported the yes side and has been prominent in debates and discussions about the treaty. Tommy Dooley has been an effective director of elections for Fianna Fáil and between them they have persuaded party supporters to vote for the treaty.

The referendum campaign reminds us of the tightrope which Fianna Fáil continues to walk in Irish politics. Having been central to the IMF/EU bailout and, as the architects of the current austerity policies, Fianna Fáil were left with little option other than to support the treaty, but on the yes side, they were always going to be overshadowed by the government parties, which get the lion’s share of the publicity during referendum debates.

Their decision to support the treaty also handed over considerable space and lots of air time to Sinn Féin, which has been able to situate itself as the central force in the no campaign. As a result, joining the yes side on the treaty was and is a risky strategy for Martin. However, it is one that seems to be paying off. Fianna Fáil voters are supporting the treaty, Fianna Fáil support is up and Éamon Ó Cuív is marginalised on the sidelines of the party, for the time being at least.

* Dr Theresa Reidy is a lecturer in the department of government at University College Cork.