Fear and confusion as Egypt slides into chaos

An ‘invisible’ police force and doubts about the military rulers’ plans has led to fears of violent elections next week, writes Mike Giglio

ONE evening last week, Azza Soliman and her husband, Mazen Mostafa, sat beside the croquet pitch at the Heliopolis Club, which was founded by the British in 1910.

Soliman once ran a small liberal political party, and Mostafa is a well-to-do businessman. As they listened to the hard taps of croquet mallets, the couple made a surprising admission: They were thinking of buying a gun.

In the nine months since Egypt’s revolution, a pervasive unease has seeped into the country’s initial sense of optimism. That is on show when people discuss the status of their streets, as a once smothering security force has seemed to fade into the background.

Mostafa and Soliman ticked through the safety concerns: A rumoured raft of weapons flowing in from Libya, on top of the ones looted from police stations; press reports of kidnappings and violent crime. And with the police now noticeably thinned out, even the snarled traffic on Cairo’s chaotic streets is taking on an ominous tone.

“Life in Egypt is sliding to intended chaos,” says Mostafa.

Clashes again erupted in the capital last weekend as nearly 30 people died as forces moved to clear Tahrir Square of protesters ahead of parliamentary elections next week.

Soliman, who ran as an independent in the 2010 elections, planned to run again. But as Egypt’s mood darkened, she decided against it. “I think maybe it will be a bloody election.” She worried that authorities have been pulled back to bring about that scenario: “Maybe this is why the police are hiding.”

Egyptian elections were long seen as dangerous, where hired thugs descended on polling stations to help muscle regime candidates into power. Now, with the implosion of former president Hosni Mubarak’s old party, a wealth of new ones have come into existence. Up to 24 million voters are expected to turn out versus 6m in the last elections. With the police pulling back, some Egyptians fear they have an explosive cocktail on their hands.

“The atmosphere in Egypt is much more tense now than it was several months ago,” says analyst Shadi Hamid. “You have so many factors that make for a combustible mix… Violence is almost inevitable.”

Mohamed Mahfouz, a former police official who is now spearheading reform efforts, worries that disruptive elements could be aiming to make the entire election fail. “There is nothing to lose.”

Dalia Ziada, a liberal activist turned candidate, earlier this month received a death threat via text.

“Your end is near, sweet girl,” it read. She has yet to decide whether to even head out to the polls.

The Muslim Brotherhood, which stands to make big electoral gains, is warily watching the situation. One organiser worries the elections might not happen at all. Instability could be used as an excuse to put off the vote, he says.

Signs of turmoil bubbled up last Thursday, when Coptic Christians marched in commemoration of a previous attack on them. One witness saw people throwing Molotov cocktails and glass bottles at marchers, and officials reported that 29 people were injured.

Hours later, a small demonstration made its way toward Tahrir Square. Some teens began harassing one of the few policemen in sight. An activist ran over and shooed the kids away. “I’m sorry,” he said to the policeman, “but you should really get out of here.”

Mahfouz, who is in regular touch with former colleagues in the force, thinks that police have holed up in their stations to avoid their duties.

“They’re not picking up the [emergency] calls,” he says.

Many Egyptians think that the police may be absenting themselves because they feel the revolution tarnished their status. Hussein Hammouda, a former brigadier at Egypt’s Interior Ministry who joined the revolution, says the protests that toppled Mubarak started as a response to police brutality.

“They’re humiliated. Some of them hate the revolution.”

Speculation over the police plays into a deeper confusion over what exactly the military council wants. When the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces took charge in the wake of Mubarak’s exit, it seemed open to some of the revolution’s demands and promised a quick transition to democracy.

But it has since made a series of worrying moves: Instituting emergency law, erecting military courts, and proposing to stay in power until parliament elects a president, which could be more than a year away.

Gamal Eid is one of Egypt’s most respected human-rights defenders. He warns that while press reports and word-of-mouth spread concerns over insecurity, reliable analysis has been in short supply — and that talk of violence and chaos might be a destabilising force in itself.

On Friday night in Shoubra, one of Cairo’s most notorious neighbourhoods, residents spoke of guns and thefts, and one man showed off the fresh cuts on his face from an attempted carjacking.

But one taxi driver insisted that life in Cairo hadn’t changed all that much. “The same problems have always been here. We’ve always protected ourselves.”

* Copyright: Newsweek/Daily Beast.