Will there be an election before 2010? It’s an even money bet ...

WHAT’S the betting on a general election before the year end? Bookies’ odds compilers convert potential outcomes into mathematical probabilities. For sports events, one relies mainly on form and statistics. While the last three Dáils ran their full five years, previously three years was the average Dáil life over the preceding two decades. The primary axis rotates around the Dáil arithmetic.

This Government comprised 78 Fianna Fáil TDs, 6 Greens, 2 PDs plus the committed support of 3 Independents — giving it a comfortable majority of six. The resignation of MEP, Pat “The Cope” Gallagher, means there are 165 TDs. Subtracting the Ceann Comhairle leaves 82 Government deputies. Any further slippage from the FF parliamentary party or the Greens could capsize the Government. I recall David Trimble’s travails when leading the UUP. He regularly faced formal internal votes. It only took one heave to be successful and he was finished.

Unlike horseracing, where inside information from jockeys and trainers is vital, the last place I would rely on for election timing insight is among members of the Dáil. Politicians deeply abhor and detest general elections. All recoil at the personal horror of their own uncertainty. TDs are always in a constant state of denial about the prospects of a pending contest. The profound level of private insecurity has to be felt to be believed. They face three risks with a new Dáil: the constant change at constituency level; the snakes and ladders of careers within the parliamentary party; as well as the overall party political battle for government.

The dynamic of constituency politics creates the greatest job insecurity. Nothing stands still locally: Emerging young councillors, rumours about new suitable community candidates, older politicians reaching their “sell by” dates, internal rivalries — are all the source of personal turmoil. Post election periods create the greatest upheaval within parliamentary parties.

Defeated leaders often exit. Significant reshuffles occur. Most momentous is whether your party is catapulted from opposition into government or vice versa — your whole demeanour can alter between attack and defence modes. Seasoned politicians know elections mean “game on”, with everything at stake.

Circumstances determine Dáil dissolutions. Cowen is surrounded by defaulting threats to his Dáil viability. The extent of the defeat in the June elections didn’t properly register on the Government benches until the summer recess. Fianna Fáil received an average vote of 40% in the last three general elections. The seismic decrease to 25% has massive implications for seat losses. FF could not hold any of its two out of three or three out of five-seat constituencies. A likely recovery in party fortunes is only expected to be around 30% — 35%, given the historic low watermark.

This alters the mood music at constituency level. Take a microcosm of this situation, Tipperary South. This three-seat constituency unexpectedly returned both Martin Mansergh and Mattie McGrath. FF obtained two seats, with Tom Hayes (FG) getting the remaining seat. On the ground in Clonmel, Carrick on Suir and Tipperary town, the internal party focus switches from the strategy of holding the two seats onto who will survive versus who will lose out.

This creates intense rivalry and ultimately division. Backbenchers have to distance themselves from Government decisions to retain defecting voters.

Garret Fitzgerald’s government (1982-87) suffered badly in its last years from politicians making “solo runs”. This was to highlight a local or national sensitivity to raise their own profile. Jimmy Devins and Eamon Scanlon chose local credentials rather than national party loyalty, when resigning the party whip. Wicklow’s Joe Behan went the whole hog and seek Independent /FF career. It seems inevitable that there will be others disembarking from the mother ship to take their chances on a personal life boat to survive.

The rumoured autumn cabinet reshuffle could spark the creation of a growing rump within the FF parliamentary party. Previously demoted junior ministers are biding their time in the long grass. Some bitterly resent Cowen’s treatment of them. While John McGuinness is the public face of dissent, there are potentially many other rebels and mavericks that could cut loose against Cowen’s leadership. Already there appears to be jockeying for position and posturing for a leadership contest.

The Greens represent an ominous threat. The local election results could not have been worse. Decimation of their Dublin council base spells potential disaster for all their five seats in the capital. Their only rural TD, Mary White (Carlow/Kilkenny) faces a double threat from FG and Labour. They are devoid of a silver bullet solution. They are doomed if they continually prop up a deeply unpopular FF administration and they are damned if they have to face the wrath of the public with an early poll. Increased evidence abounds of ordinary party members flexing their muscles to assert authority within the party. Defeated council candidates may develop national media profiles. The Greens now embark upon renegotiation of the Programme for Government. Gormley has said this will be concluded by October 2 (Lisbon referendum date). The two-thirds majority benchmark required is problematic. Green negotiators will seek to impose their environmental agenda. Flagship public transport projects such as Metro or the Western Rail corridor could emerge as red line issues.

Political reforms such as a ban on corporate party donations or reducing the Dáil size will privately incense FF. Their mood is unlikely to be brightened by Green demands for a carbon levy and residential property tax. FF may regard both as more trouble than they are worth. A conflict on education or welfare cuts could ignite.

The public mood about NAMA has palpably altered since the Liam Carroll/Zoe court cases. The alliance of property developers and bankers had deliberately masked the complete collapse in property values. Legal evidence submitted to support Carroll’s rescue plan was exposed as fundamentally fanciful and flawed. Voters gazed in horror at the inevitable costs of NAMA and the proposed bailout of the banks.The NAMA legislation and property valuation process are ticking political time bombs.

If the Government can navigate through the mine field of internal FF and Green party dissent, they still have to rely on two other wily characters. Jackie Healy Rea disguises his political skills, savvy and cuteness with colourful rhetoric. His cloth cap cloaks his smart political antennae. Coming from the Fianna Fáil gene pool, he will want to be seen to be loyal. But if there are Kerry cutbacks he could pull out. Jackie will act in the national interest and do what’s best for himself. Last week, he issued an ultimatum concerning local rural transport schemes. Michael Lowry will extract the last ounce of largesse for Tipperary, before concluding that the majority of his votes are from a FG base. Both guys will be the most accurate weather vane of this Government’s survival and longevity.

All things considered, I calculate the odds on the Government surviving to 2010 as no better than even money. Bookies have to try make a profit, so it’s 5/6 each of two. Take your pick ...