Cowen seems unable to break free of Ahern’s potentially fatal embrace

That could colour the floating voter’s perception of Cowen, and not to his favour

BRIAN COWEN may be that rare thing in Irish politics: a man without the personal ambition to reach the very top despite the opportunity being put in front of him. Or else, and more worryingly, he is a man paralysed by the fear of taking the responsibility involved in becoming Taoiseach.

There isn’t a vacancy of course. But that’s only a matter of time. Bertie Ahern may talk of a mandate to remain in office until 2012, but everyone knows that won’t happen.

Even if Ahern’s credibility and longevity had not been severely damaged by the continuing revelations of the Mahon Tribunal, Fianna Fáil would not have intended to allow him stay until just before the next general election. A new leader needs some time to establish himself before a poll. Once Ahern said he would retire at 60, it meant he would have to go earlier. He just didn’t think it would be in 2008.

But it still may not be this year because of Cowen’s reluctance to be seen to push. His friends say this is down to his innate sense of loyalty to the party.

In Cowen’s world you do not push against its leader, especially when it is outsiders who wish you to do so. It may be that he is not particularly enamoured with Ahern or his behaviour, but that is secondary to what he feels he has to do.

It may be down to an innate sense of conservatism as well, believing it would work against him to be seen to bring down the leader prematurely. Indeed, he may be right. While outsiders have been baying for Ahern’s blood for more than a year now, it has only been since the revelation of a £30,000 “loan” for Celia Larkin that Fianna Fáil members have focused on the need to prepare for life after Ahern.

Cowen did himself a lot of good in that regard in the Dáil last week when he, rather than Ahern, was the subject of attack by Fine Gael. He effortlessly demolished Enda Kenny’s attacks on him for propping up Ahern, flooring a visibly distressed Kenny with his comment “you are neither qualified or able” to judge Ahern.

Fine Gael may have been naive directly to confront Cowen: he likes putting the boot into opposition figures who irritate him and he can do so with wit or style, or not, as it suits him.

But while Fine Gael failed to embarrass Cowen, the tactic being employed is an interesting one. Cowen runs the risk of being seen by the public as the principal apologist for Ahern (with the obvious exception of Martin Mansergh) if he continues to defend the indefensible. That could colour the floating voter’s perception of Cowen, and not to his favour.

Fianna Fáil can take comfort from the most recent Irish Times opinion poll that gave Cowen — who is measured as if he is already a party leader — an approval rating of 52%, well ahead of Ahern’s personal popularity at 40%. That suggests a hitherto unrecognised appeal to women and non-Fianna Fáil voters.

It shouldn’t be forgotten either that Cowen’s strength was central to the winning of the 2007 general election. He was the party’s star performer while Ahern dithered. It was he who was given credit for putting the steel back into Ahern’s spine when it appeared the Taoiseach was turning to jelly in the wake of all the revelations about his finances.

While Cowen’s detractors may try to depict him as dour and unattractively aggressive — exactly what the pollsters say is not needed to attract floating votes — it might work for him. The public might like his ability to argue his points convincingly and far more coherently than his deliberately opaque boss.

But that appeal could be transient. Cowen and Fianna Fáil should not regard his appeal to the public as guaranteed, especially if the economy goes into a tailspin.

That is where Cowen is particularly vulnerable. Finance is the most high-profile ministry outside of the main office of Taoiseach. A perceived ability to manage the economy was the reason many voters plumped to return Fianna Fáil to power. But the storm clouds are gathering fast. The exchequer tax take is running more than €500 million behind budget and this number is likely to multiply throughout the rest of the year. There is little Cowen can do except take the blame for overstating likely tax revenues.

The pressure will come on him then to reduce government spending and possibly, if he is still Minister for Finance for the budget next December, to increase taxes. Both could be toxic for his chances of replacing Ahern.

Cowen has committed himself, correctly, to living up to the promises of fully funding the national development plan. But that will require him to borrow heavily and to cut back on current spending. That is very dangerous politically.

He must also prove he has the imagination to come up with ideas himself. But the fear is that he is a solicitor without the creativity of his predecessor Charlie McCreevy and he will take the conservative option every time, under the direction of the string-pulling civil servants in his department.

Cowen has rarely been a man to take chances in the performance of his ministerial duties. It is always steady as it goes. This helped him to avoid landmines in the Department of Health, for example, and there are no major blemishes on his CV. But nor are there major achievements, given that the credit for much of what was achieved while he was Minister for Foreign Affairs was taken by Ahern.

He runs the risk of waking up one day to realise Ahern’s embrace of him was fatal.

Ahern has cleverly drawn Cowen closer to him since the election, forcing him to share the responsibility for controversial or damaging things, such as the recent increase in ministerial salaries.

AHERN’S public nomination of Cowen as his potential replacement — while insisting he would like to remain in place himself for another few years — did his deputy no favours. Probably, it was deliberate, designed to stir Cowen’s potential rivals, but also to make some think in the future that Cowen had waited too long and that his time had passed.

And that is a very possible outcome. If Cowen genuinely wants the job he cannot assume the prize is his no matter how long it takes Ahern to decide to stand down. Cowen’s loyalty means he will be drawn into the EU treaty referendum campaign and he will suffer almost as badly as his boss if that is lost. If they win that, Ahern will look to contest next year’s European and local elections as leader. Cowen may plan to pick up the pieces afterwards, but if Fianna Fáil does well Ahern will take it as a mandate to continue. If it does badly, Cowen, too, may ship a lot of the blame.

He also needs to show more drive and desire. You never know which Cowen you’re going to get on a given day.

Sometimes he is focused and, as a result, awesome. Some days he is distracted and, consequently, no better than anyone else. There are too many days when his public performances are not sufficiently up to scratch. Maybe he doesn’t care too much, but others do.

While the experiences of Peter Robinson up north — and Gordon Brown in Britain — show that good things come to those who wait, Cowen may find that all does not proceed as others would like for him, no matter what he might like for himself.

The Last Word with Matt Cooper is broadcast on 100-102 Today FM, Monday to Friday, 4.30pm to 7pm.