Paul Hosford: Could Connolly ‘coalition’ of parties win general election?

Sinn Féin's decision to join the other left-wing parties in backing Catherine Connolly may well be a dry run for a left coalition that could possibly win a general election

Sinn Féin Mary Lou McDonald casting her vote in Cabra, North Dublin. Picture: Sam Boal/Collins

As Catherine Connolly’s final campaign event finished, the candidate was joined on stage by the leaders of the parties who have backed her candidacy.

There, triumphantly flanking the Galway woman who may on Saturday become president were Labour’s Ivana Bacik, MEP Luke Ming Flanagan, People Before Profit’s Paul Murphy, the Social Democrats’ Holly Cairns, and Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald. Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman, a committed environmentalist, had spoken earlier but had to run to catch the last train home.

The night had been billed as a get out to vote rally and there were consistent warnings Ms Connolly could only win the Áras with votes, regardless of polling.

But the night was not just of interest because of the presidential election. It was interesting because of what the final visual — leaders of left and centre-left parties standing side by side on the one stage in a way which was unthinkable a year ago, and the message was hammered home throughout the speeches before Ms Connolly took to the stage — this is a coalition which can win not just a presidential election, but a general one too.

At the centre of the movement would be Sinn Féin, whose seats and size and resources dictate it is a necessary component of any alternative to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with the party having realised it can no longer reach the promised land of government without the support of the parties on the left, such is the level of refusal in the current coalition parties to even countenance a pact with Ms McDonald’s party.

Sinn Féin had come around to the idea of a left-wing transfer pact last year, but only in the last few days of the general election and without any real enthusiasm.

This is something the Sinn Féin leader knows. In an interview last month with the Irish Examiner, Ms McDonald said the party “must learn” from last year and be in a position to better make the argument that a coalition without Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael is possible.

“We hadn’t done enough within Sinn Féin, as Sinn Féin to build and develop those relationships and that politics and that collaboration at that point. We simply hadn’t,” she said when asked why the electorate had not opted for a change of government.

“There are others that we have worked with, I think, actually very successfully, certainly since the last election, across the combined opposition. And they are in many respects, very different from us.

“That is true, and that’s a good thing and a necessary thing. But there are points at which we have absolute common cause. I feel that we have an absolute responsibility to work together.”

Having taken (a lot of) time to discuss its presidential moves with its membership, Sinn Féin’s leadership promised its entry to the race would be “a gamechanger”. 

In light of the entry of Jim Gavin as Fianna Fáil’s candidate, the party’s leader made a number of references to sport, knowing it would make the media follow like cats chasing a laser pointer. 

When the party announced subsequently it was backing Ms Connolly, there was a line of thinking that the party had bottled it — decided not to get involved because it either didn’t have a candidate or didn’t want to risk a loss. 

A senior Sinn Féin source estimates about 65-75% of the people who knocked on doors last year turned out for this year’s campaign. Much of that was a belief in Ms Connolly, but others have begun to see the value of a combined left effort.

In 2018, the party pressed ahead with Liadh Ní Ríada’s candidacy in spite of Michael D Higgins’ huge popularity, a decision which annoyed many members and led to Ms Ní Riada coming fourth with just 94,000 votes. This time, it committed to ensuring any decision was mulled over and led by consultation with members.

The eyerolls that followed the announcement were replaced by raised eyebrows as the campaign kicked off properly when it became clear the Sinn Féin apparatus — from staff to volunteers and members — was not just in agreement with supporting Ms Connolly, but were doing so enthusiastically. 

Indeed, the now-virally famous clip of Ms Connolly doing solos with a football and playing basketball with children was captured on video by a member of Sinn Féin’s staff and spread from the account of its TD Louise O’Reilly.

There is a sense Sinn Féin joined a campaign that was going well and gave it the manpower and resources to capitalise on the momentum it had built up, particularly when Mr Gavin withdrew.

A senior Sinn Féin source estimates about 65-75% of the people who knocked on doors last year turned out for this year’s campaign. Much of that was a belief in Ms Connolly, but others have begun to see the value of a combined left effort.

Within the other parties, there was a sense Sinn Féin needed to make a “real show” it was serious about left unity and most, if not all, believe this has been achieved with the Connolly campaign.

For Labour and the Greens, however, the idea of coalescing with the broad left is not that straightforward. Both parties saw high-profile members say they were not voting for Ms Connolly, with ex-Green TD Brian Leddin going so far as to quit the party in an Irish Times opinion piece, in which he argued supporting the Galway woman would alienate Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael voters who might be minded to send transfers their way.

Mr Leddin’s piece says he does not believe there is much of a left-right divide in the Greens, that most people in the party are centrists, but some remaining members argue Green policies are inherently left-wing and a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael coalition will roll back the Greens’ achievements which were made between 2020 and 2024.

Labour, meanwhile, is seen as the “reasonable” centre-left party by many in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the one that can do business with the two. Alan Kelly’s reticence to vote for Ms Connolly was largely based in his views of the candidate, but many in the party took it as a warning against closer relations with Sinn Féin and People Before Profit.

This is the balance Labour has to find and that all of the disparate parties will have to find over the next four years, if that is when the next election is. 

In his speech in Galway, Mr Murphy urged the parties to see the Connolly campaign as a template for a government without Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, but said People Before Profit would not lose its identity and the other parties should not either.

Whether Ms Connolly is elected president today or not, the left appears to have found a mechanism that would let it work together in an election, something it has never seen before. But this could just be a handy time to coalesce around an already popular candidate. The proof of the success or failure of a combined left will be when boxes are opened in 2029.

One way or the other, however, the ramifications of this election will be felt for a long time.