Buckle up, it will be a rocky few months for the Cabinet

The knives will be out between Eamon Ryan, Micheál Martin, and Leo Varadkar this year.

It was all sunshine and smiles as ministers took a trip to Co Wicklow this week.

But it’s set to be a rocky road all the way to Christmas once members of Government get back to their offices in Dublin.

In recent months, the coalition parties have been testing how far they can push the other without forcing a breakdown in relations, but with constituency boundaries now firmly set, the limits will be pressed even further.

A number of issues including Helen McEntee’s hate speech bill and proposals on land use due from Pippa Hackett early next year have been marked as divisive within the coalition.

But with politicians now focused on their own futures after the next election, the spats are expected to get more parochial and even personal.

Citing recent pointed comments from Fine Gael members on everything from school transport to agriculture, one Fianna Fáil source said: “I can see major tensions brewing between the coalition parties post recess, particularly in the backbench sections. Buckle up!”

The first flashpoint is likely to come before TDs and senators make it back into their chamber seats when Fine Gael members next week confront Eamon Ryan on the contentious issue of funding for roads. 

Frustration and anger around what has been perceived as a deliberate delay from the transport minister in allocating funding for roads has been brewing at both the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gaelparliamentary party meetings in recent months.

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The issue came to a head before the summer when a number of Fine Gael backbenchers and senators demanded that Ryan come before them during the recess.

The timing of this meeting has been repeatedly pushed out over the summer, but the Green Party leader will now face disgruntled members of Leo Varadkar’s party next Wednesday. 

“There are a lot of us that are essentially pissed off because we keep going to the department for money to progress these projects and every time they don’t allocate enough funding and we have to go back again,” said one Fine Gael member.

Fine Gael TDs and senators are frustrated that sufficient money is not being allocated to the likes of the N25 Midleton to Youghal route, the N4 between Longford and Sligo, and the N24 between Waterford and Tipperary.

“It’s driving us mad,” said one Fine Gael member who said he anticipated a “very vocal meeting”.

But road infrastructure is not the only area which is causing friction between the Greens and the two main parties.

Rural TDs say they are “getting it in the neck” as it is believed that they are allowing the Greens to put a significant stamp on policy, with bog rewetting, carbon reductions across all sectors, and this week’s announcement around the nitrates derogation for farmers all being raised.

“There is a toxicity now around the Green Party and what they are doing, especially in rural constituencies, so we will be more vocal,” said one backbencher.

Of course, some of this is tactical scapegoating of a party that has not done itself any favours in its messaging of certain contentious changes, especially those measures that will have an impact on rural dwellers.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have also been ably assisted by several rural Independent TDs in demonising the green agenda.

In any coalition, the larger party or parties can often find an easy target in their smaller partners.

But increasingly the mudslinging has been between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, which in the longer-term could be more destabilising for the Government.

The latest swipes came just hours after the cabinet’s away day to Avondale, when Fine Gael’s Tim Lombard took to social media to denounce Fianna Fáil Agriculture Minister Charlie McConalogue over his handling of the nitrates derogation issue for Irish farmers.

“Brussels today with colleagues from the Agricultural Committee and meeting with Commissioner Sinkevičius tomorrow. In person. Yet our Minister for Agriculture had a virtual meeting on Monday to put our case to keep derogation,” the senator posted.

A tit-for-tat ensued with Fianna Fáil senator Erin McGreehan responding: “I see there is a concerted effort by FG on here to attack Charlie McConalogue. I’m certainly not happy with the commission’s nitrates decision - it will be a disaster for some farmers. especially the smaller ones. Be constructive Tim.”

Lombard dug in and issued a press release, stating it was a “real blow” to hear that McConalogue had a virtual meeting with the commissioner.

Some in Fianna Fáil see remarks like this as a weakness from Varadkar’s party, which will be going into the next general election without at least seven of the current sitting TDs.

“Fine Gael seem to be getting techy. They are knocking Norma [Foley], they are knocking Charlie [McConalogue], but they are happy to go out and be part of a coalition if there is any good announcement from us,” said one Fianna Fáil member.

Nevertheless, Fianna Fáil members are still sore about comments made by Higher Education Minister Simon Harris in August.

Defending his own party, he claimed it takes “many years to fix, to repair those deep scars from the economic crash and economic mismanagement of this country”.

Members of Micheál Martin’s party have been keen to hit back, arguing that more than a decade of inaction on housing from Fine Gael in power has left Minister Darragh O’Brien with a significant amount of work to get done.

However, one minister said those at a senior level will not be following the lead of Harris as they understand the importance of maintaining working relations around the cabinet table.

But this will not stop those lower down the ranks as they try to re-establish their identity among voters, by briefing against their so-called partners in power.

Those looking to retain or gain a seat are acutely aware that for many voters the choice will not be between the two Civil War parties, instead it will be between Sinn Féin and An Other. 

Whether Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil becomes the dominant ‘other’ will depend a lot on the manoeuvring that goes on both in public and behind the scenes in the coming months.

“In a lot of constituencies, the main rivalry is between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael for seats and people know that” one minister said.

Backbenchers will be eager to ramp up the criticism of their partners in Government across several issues, which could lead to a bumpy ride to the coalition at times.

“The niceties that were there between members of both parties are kind of starting to end now because we are in election mode,” said one Fine Gael senator.

Buckle up, indeed.