Alison O'Connor: McGrath could use his finance role to win party leadership in contest

Michael McGrath seen as a 'safe pair of hands' to take over party leadership but there are other contenders

Paschal Donohoe with Michael McGrath. The latter could use his new position of finance minister to boost his chances of becoming FF party leader. Picture: PA

ALMOST all eyes are on the switch in the top job but another significant swap is also taking place on Friday. In the edifice that is Government Buildings, the ministers for finance and public expenditure and reform also change seats as part of the reshuffle.

The exiting finance minister leaves that department with a high standing. Paschal Donohoe steered the country economically in an extremely able manner and with compassion. There was a once-in-a-lifetime global pandemic, before almost immediately having to deal with the fallout of Russia invading Ukraine. Not to mention Brexit. 

Showing his standing among his EU peers he has just been re-elected, unopposed, as Eurogroup president. His role in the 2020 general election for Fine Gael saw his star within the party dip significantly, but he has recovered considerable ground since.

For his part, Michael McGrath, who is acknowledged to have performed well in public enterprise, will walk into that new role which he says he has been “preparing for, for a very long time” with his eye on a bigger prize. He will be hoping the Department of Finance serves as a high-profile platform for him to launch a campaign as party leader. 

He’s never come out and said that, but the indicators are all there. There can be little doubt but that after Friday’s significant change in personnel the dynamic within both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will alter. In the case of Fianna Fáil, that leadership clock will once again begin ticking loudly, the volume having lessened of late as Micheál Martin proved a popular taoiseach.

Impending elections

All elected representatives will now find their thoughts turning to upcoming local and European elections, as well as a general election.

A new party leader will be on all minds as Micheál Martin’s time inevitably comes to an end. He was first appointed in 2011. At the end of next month, remarkably, he will enter his 13th year at the helm. Hypothetically if he was to remain there until 2025 he would then be longest serving leader after Éamon de Valera. It’s just too long.

Micheál Martin (left) with Housing Minister Darragh O'Brien who is also a contender for the leadership. Picture: Niall Carson/PA Wire

As things stand, it would appear there are two contenders for his role, a third who seems somewhat out of the running, a fourth who realises his chances will greatly depend on whether he gets appointed to a senior ministry on Friday, and possibly a fifth.

Along with safe-pair-of-hands Michael McGrath there is Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien. He is certainly getting experience at a senior ministerial level. But with his particularly toxic cabinet role he does find himself the subject of things like confidence motions in the Dáil, tabled by People before Profit, as he did just this week.

In the end, the Government easily won a vote of confidence in the minister, but the immediate future holds little reprieve for him. A number of his colleagues would admire his fighting style with the opposition and the media, but it remains to be seen how broad that appeal is.

Then there is, or what seems likes was, Jim O’Callaghan. The Dublin Bay South TD may beg to disagree but from this vantage point he seems less relevant now to a potential leadership race. He does have the hindrance of not having any ministerial experience at all. This is a situation unlikely to be altered by tomorrow’s events.

By far the youngest, and in need of an elevation to keep his ambitions fuelled, is Chief Whip Jack Chambers. It would be an interesting indication if Micheál Martin was to go against the received wisdom that he won’t drop Stephen Donnelly from the Department of Health and replace him with Chambers. 

Might he instead be made a super junior, sitting at the Cabinet table? There is an expectation among some in the party that Education Minister Norma Foley might throw her hat in the ring. Again there are profile issues here.

Listening to the finance-minister-in-waiting on a podcast he did in recent weeks you could surmise the jostling had already begun. Michael McGrath spoke to the Cork-based 24 Stories business podcast.

Responding to the leadership question it was “hard to say” and he pointed out he had a large and still relatively young family. But he warmed to his theme.

I’ve always taken the view that we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.

“That for me is probably the litmus test when that opportunity does arise. Do I believe I can offer something different and new, something additional to what someone else can offer? I think that is a judgement call you can only make at that time.”

In additional remarks, which might be looked on with scepticism by anyone other than his nearest and dearest, he said: “Now I certainly would not be doing it out of any self-interest. That is not what motivates me.”

He spoke of the bad old days and “getting ran from doors” in the 2011 general election including by people he knew.

“Their income cut and their wellbeing and what they could do for their family was impacted in a very, very detrimental way and they blamed the government and the government was absolutely in part responsible. There were other factors but when you are in government you have to accept responsibility.”

He marvelled at how, despite these circumstances, he got “over 7,000 number 1s in that election”.

“Micheál had just become the leader of the party and I think would have got a bounce from that, and did well in the election. I could have very easily lost out and if I did I’m not sure what would have happened would I ever have been able to come back.”

Jack Chambers is the youngest contender, but he might be made a super junior instead. Picture: Moya Nolan

Effectively laying out his CV, he spoke of how he had been party finance spokesman since 2011 “responding to nine budgets from opposition”.

He mentioned his involvement in confidence and supply negotiations with Fine Gael after the 2016 general election, similarly negotiations after the 2020 general election.

Most strategically perhaps, he spoke of how, in his finance roles, he has helped rebuild trust in Fianna Fáil on its “Achilles heel” of economic issues following the crash. “So it fell to me to rebuild the brand and to rebuild trust among the public, that we could be trusted again in power.”

Fianna Fáil continues to face existential issues that make it seem a new leader would have to be a miracle worker in order to get the party back into any sort of fighting order. 

But after Friday, the party will be able to say that a Fianna Fáil Taoiseach handed over power leaving the country in the best state possible after some very unusual world events — admittedly with housing and health in crisis.

Certainly an able performance now by a Fianna Fáil minister for finance would boost that and assist a potential candidate in a leadership race. But the starting gun has yet to be fired and the other candidates will also have their say. The bigger question for the winner is what would they be taking over?