Daniel McConnell: Snorefest reshuffle will attract plenty of criticism

As of now, the likelihood of any blood being spilled at senior minister level is minimal, as both Micheál Martin and Leo Varadkar look unable to cull any of their ranks.

ON this day in two weeks, Micheál Martin’s time as Taoiseach will come to an end.

He will formally resign his office and travel to Aras an Uachtarain, beginning the historic transfer of power to Leo Varadkar.

It is set to be a long day of pomp and ceremony with tributes galore from the government benches as to how good a job Mr Martin has done in the top job battling through Covid, the cost of living crisis and the war in Ukraine.

From the opposition benches, there will be cries of failure and disappointment, but at the end of the day Leo Varadkar will once again be the democratically elected leader of our country.

People will moan that the country didn’t vote for Varadkar and Martin to swap positions such as this, but that is simply a misunderstanding of how the system works.

The people, you and I good citizen, elected a Dáil of 160 members in the General Election in 2020.

Once that parliament is fully constituted, it is then the job of TDs, the people’s representatives, to form a government.

Given the splintered and fractured nature of the result, a government was not immediately obvious.

It took 140 days of negotiations for Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Green Party to come together to create a majority administration.

This rotation was simply the price of peace and power and the transition from Fianna Fáil to Fine Gael in the Taoiseach’s office is a legitimate exercise within the mandate won by the three parties in 2020.

Saturday, December 17, is set to be a long day, with Varadkar reportedly warning his colleagues proceedings in the Dáil could run as late as midnight before the new Cabinet is in place.

As long and as gruelling a day as that sounds, the way things are looking it promises to be light on surprises in terms of personnel changes in the proposed reshuffle

As one rather cynical former minister said to me the other night, “will this be the first reshuffle where nobody is shuffled off? It appears it will be a total snorefest.”

We know that the Green Party ministers will not be changed in the reshuffle, making it a Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil affair.

As of now, the likelihood of any blood being spilled at senior minister level is minimal, as both Varadkar and Martin look contented or feel unable to cull any of their ranks.

Martin's move

For Martin, sacking Michael McGrath is simply not an option and would draw too much heat internally were he to deny him the finance portfolio. McGrath and Martin’s at times frosty relationship, given their Cork South Central rivalry, has proven to be a very stable partnership in government and McGrath has steadfastly avoided anything that hinted at undermining Martin while in the Taoiseach’s office.

Darragh O’Brien has effectively been told he is staying in Housing post reshuffle and, while latest housing commencement numbers and record homelessness numbers are hard to defend, there is no sense Martin will drop his Fingal bruiser.

Education Minister Norma Foley has been another who has proven her mettle in office, despite a rocky start, but is again under fire over school transport issues and the shortage of the supply of teachers.

But the Kerry-based first-timer is an acolyte of Martin’s and has enjoyed his protection and endured his interference since taking office.

Again, no sense that she will be dropped but there is talk that she and Fine Gael TD and Higher Education Minister Simon Harris could swap portfolios as part of a wider move around.

Donegal’s Charlie McConalogue is another who has steadied the ship after the double departure of Barry Cowen and Dara Calleary in seven weeks in 2020.

However, as we have reported recently, Fine Gael are mad to take control of agriculture to reconnect with their increasingly departed rural base.

While there has been plenty of speculation about Stephen Donnelly being the sacrificial lamb from Cabinet, the chances of him being sacked are fading.

The feeling is that Martin has invested significant political capital in Donnelly but also that replacing him will mean it will take another year to bed a new minister in, and this government is likely to last two at most.

Such a decision will have implications for current Chief Whip and medical doctor Jack Chambers, who had been widely tipped for a step up to a full ministry.

The argument one hears about not promoting the rising star Chambers is that “time is on his side”.

The lack of an opening would also stymie Calleary’s ambitions for a return to the full Cabinet in the wake of return as a junior minister in the summer.

Varadkar's team

For Varadkar, there have been some noticeable disagreements with his finance minister Paschal Donohoe, say over the 30% tax rate and more recently on how the State’s money is used to fund housing projects.

However, the Dublin Central man who is about to be re-crowned the President of the Eurogroup, can face into his fifth reshuffle with the confidence that his place as a senior member of Cabinet is assured as he will once again become Public Expenditure Minister.

There are no circumstances under which Helen McEntee, the now minister without portfolio who has begun her maternity leave, will be ousted from Cabinet.

Her temporary replacement in Justice, as well as being Social Protection and Rural Affairs Minister Heather Humphreys is virtually unsackable given how popular she is proving in light of the many millions of Euro she has been spreading around the country of late.

The obvious candidate for demotion in the Fine Gael ranks is current Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney, who has held his post for almost six years and has been at the Cabinet table since 2011

But, despite his high-profile missteps such as the Katherine Zappone affair in 2021, Coveney is for some reason regarded as “indispensable” for Fine Gael and as a result he is likely to remain.

Even at super junior ministerial level, we are now expecting change to be minimal.

While the temptation for both Varadkar and Martin is there to play safe, it is not a zero-cost calculation.

The new teams they announce will be their those heading into the next General Election and the lack of change will merely reinforce opposition charges of “stale and pale” when it comes to the makeup of the Government.

What's your view on this issue?

You can tell us here

The spilling of some blood in a reshuffle is needed to reinforce the authority of the leader and by not culling anyone, both Varadkar and Martin will annoy a host of people who had hopes of preferment.

They will also realise that once the reshuffle is over, the reason for their troops to behave themselves will be in the past and malcontents will have no reason to stay quiet anymore.

We have already seen a group of former ministers in Fine Gael become some of Varadkar’s sharpest critics internally and if Saturday week passes off as is now expected, such criticism will surely only heighten.