Elaine Loughlin: Has Varadkar lost his sense of direction amid sliding support? 

Not even Fine Gael seems to know what Leo is up to

What exactly is Leo Varadkar up to?

Not even his own party seems to know at this stage.

In floating the idea of a new income tax rate, the Tánaiste has ventured outside the programme for government and has strayed from the policy positions held by the party he leads.

The possibility of a third 30% rate of income tax, which would require a substantial remodelling of our taxation system, immediately gained attention when Mr Varadkar dropped it in at an Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) event last week.

Mr Varadkar argued that a third or mid rate of income tax would assist the “squeezed middle”, who it must be said account for a sizeable chunk of Fine Gael’s traditional support base.

Such substantial policy departures are usually reserved for nearer to election time. Surely Mr Varadkar, who saw his party drop to a 15-year low in the polls over the weekend, isn’t gearing up to go to the country?

“There is so much uncertainly out there at the moment, nobody would be thankful for a general election,” said one Fine Gael source, discounting any notion of it being the reason behind such an ambitious tax-change proposal.

Another Fine Gael source put the idea down to a need to come up with solutions to help families and individuals struggling with the rising cost of living.

Others appear baffled by the move, with one person stating that such “a fundamental overhaul of the tax system” probably should have been teased out within the party before being publicly aired.

Leo Varadkar, who enjoyed an extended honeymoon period after taking over from Enda Kenny in 2017 and got another boost following the Government's initial handling of the pandemic, is now dealing with a slide in public support.

Mr Varadkar, who enjoyed an extended honeymoon period after taking over from Enda Kenny in 2017 and got another boost following the Government’s initial handling of the pandemic, is now dealing with a slide in public support.

The Fine Gael leader has been showing “signs of panic” in the past week, one member told Irish Examiner political editor Daniel McConnell in explaining the 30% rate of income tax proposal, which the TD added was seen as “highly unlikely”.

If panic has set in, it won’t be helped by the most recent poll, which put Fine Gael on just 19% over the weekend.

“When you go into the teens, you know, there isn’t a big difference between 20% and 19%, but psychologically there is a big difference,” one party source said.

“So there is all of that; we are a bit stuck at the moment.”

However, another senior Fine Gael member put it down to Leo just being Leo.

“Leo does things like that. He probably says what he feels or thinks at a particular point in time but, at the end of the day, we’re one of the three-party coalition.”

Mr Varadkar is a seasoned kite-flyer and has been called out by opposition politicians over the years on his many suggested policy changes thrown out ahead of budgets or at other opportune moments.

In 2017, Fianna Fáil accused him of “trying to speak out of both sides of his mouth” after he set out proposals to replace the universal social charge and PRSI with a new charge, simply called social insurance, which would be “linked to wider and better benefits”.

At the time, he said society had been divided “into one group of people who pay for everything but get little in return due to means tests, and another who believe they should be entitled to everything for free and that someone else should pay for it”.

Reacting to what she dubbed the latest “dog-whistling”, Social Democrats co-leader Róisín Shortall referenced a number of previous kites that have failed to land.

“The Tánaiste did this a couple of years ago when you remember he was talking about raising the threshold for income tax for people over €50,000. The estimated cost to that was €2.3bn. He proposed that in 2019 and it hasn’t been heard of since,” she said.

“You remember, previously he proposed abolishing USC, which would have cost about €4bn and we haven’t heard anything about it since.

“This latest thing is really off the top of the head. It’s nonsense and, you know, it’s clear that none of the other members of Fine Gael knew anything about this before the other day and it seems he is putting everybody kind of in an awkward position now in Fine Gael because it’s more of the Tánaiste musing aloud without anything coming behind.”

When questioned about it, Mr Varadkar’s spokesperson confirmed the measure was not currently Fine Gael policy.

However, some members, including minister of state Josepha Madigan, said Mr Varadkar was 'entitled' to put forward his own ideas.

Another party member said: “In his defence, it was a speech at the IIEA. Isn’t that where you kind of go to give ideas and raise questions? It’s a think-tank, you know, if you’re not going to throw out thoughts and ideas there, where are you going to?”

However, you would imagine Mr Varadkar would have turned up with an idea that was at least half-baked.

Given that his recalibration of the tax system has yet to be examined by the Department of Finance, it currently appears to be closer to raw.

Ambitious, bold, and sometimes unorthodox ideas are required to shift policy and bring about progress.

However, when a current Tánaiste and soon-to-be taoiseach suggests an overhaul of our tax system, it holds significantly more weight than a proposal put forward by a political commentator, opposition TD, or even a Government backbencher.

Mr Varadkar knows that his utterances are analysed and interpreted, and are expected to be based on some sort of reality.

However, as he grapples with sliding political support, maybe he isn’t really sure about the direction he is trying to take.

What to look out for

Tuesday

After being confined to isolation with Covid last week, the Taoiseach is expected to be back in the Chamber this week for Leaders' Questions. Later in the day, Sinn Féin has a motion on services for children with disabilities, while Justice Minister Helen McEntee is due to take questions from 6.45pm.

The environment and climate action committee has a timely discussion on energy challenges with representatives from the Commission for the Regulation of Utilities.

Wednesday
A number of members of Government including the Taoiseach have already suggested that our neutral stance must be re-examined in light of the Russian attack on Ukraine. In this context, Solidarity-PBP, who believe our neutrality should be maintained, have put forward the 39th Amendment of the Constitution (Neutrality) Bill 2022.
Children’s Minister Roderic O'Gorman will provide an update to the Dáil on the Government's response to the Ukrainian humanitarian crisis. In the upper House, Fine Gael senators have put forward a motion on Ukraine.

It’s a busy day in the committee rooms, minister of state Thomas Byrne will brief the committee on European affairs on last week's European Council meeting which discussed the response to the war in Ukraine. The joint committee on finance and public expenditure will hear from Central Bank of Ireland governor Gabriel Makhlouf. 

Meanwhile, cybersecurity and possible hybrid threats following the Russian invasion of Ukraine will be discussed at the transport and communications committee.

Thursday
Agriculture Minister Charlie McConalogue recently announced a scheme to encourage farmers to plant tillage to address predicted grain shortages later in the year. He is expected to get a grilling on the measures when he takes questions in the Dáil from 10.30am. The recently published women's health action plan will be discussed by TDs in the afternoon.
The committee on gender equality will discuss the recommendations of the Citizens' Assembly on Gender Equality regarding domestic, sexual, and gender-based violence with the Rape Crisis Network Ireland, Dublin Rape Crisis Centre, and Women's Aid. Finally, the Public Accounts Committee has representatives from An Garda Síochána before it.

Politics headlines through history

1939

April 1: ‘Britain and France give warning to Germany’ was the headline in the Cork Examiner, which detailed how prime minister Neville Chamberlain had “dropped something of a bombshell” when he announced a Franco-British pledge to lend “all their support in their power” to guarantee Poland’s territorial integrity. While Hitler had yet to respond to the development he was understood to be “furious”.

1981

April 3: Under the headline ‘Equal rights for both spouses?’, the Cork Examiner reported on a bill drawn up by the Law Reform Commission, which contained “a controversial provision allowing action to either spouse for the adultery of the other while both are living together”. The report went on to explain that “this would replace the present situation where a husband only can sue for ‘criminal conversation’ when a husband loses the services of his wife to another man.”

1991

April 1: Easter Commemorations didn’t go to plan when John Andrew Flynn, a 91-year-old 1916 veteran, was left standing outside the main door of the GPO after An Post officials refused him entry. Taoiseach Charles Haughey was said to be outraged on hearing about the treatment of Mr Flynn — the volunteer who handed in de Valera’s gun after the surrender to the British — and instructed matters to be put right.

2017

April 1: As pressure mounted on then garda commissioner Noirín O’Sullivan over the scandal involving the quashing of penalty points, Ceann Comhairle Sean Ó Fearghaíl hit out at attempts to remove her without “evidence”, saying Ireland is at risk of “group think” which is “one step short of mob rule”. Mr Ó Fearghaíl went on to describe Ms O’Sullivan as a “very brave and courageous person who is entitled to her good name”.

Did you know?

The harp, which is used as an emblem of the State by Government departments and offices, also appears on all Irish coins.

The design of the harp is based on the 14th-century ‘Brian Boru Harp’ preserved in the Museum of Trinity College, Dublin.

The harp is engraved on the seal of office of the President and it is also on the flag of the President of Ireland where it appears as a gold harp with silver strings on blue (azure).