Donal Lenihan: Anything other than a win will be a major setback for Ireland and Andy Farrell
Andrew Porter and Garry Ringrose walk out for the Ireland team photo ahead of the start of the 2022 Six Nations. Picture: INPHO/Dan Sheridan
The health and wellbeing of the respective squads could not be further opposites when Andy Farrell and his Welsh counterpart Wayne Pivac sat down to finalise team selection for today’s eagerly awaited Six Nations opener in Dublin.
Pivac is short seven proven British and Irish Lions who between them have amassed more than 650 caps. Farrell is short James Lowe and Robbie Henshaw. His only selection poser revolved around plucking one from Keith Earls, Robert Baloucoune, Jordan Larmour and Mack Hansen to fill the vacancy left on the wing by Lowe.
Suffice to say Ireland are in rude health heading into an attritional tournament where having strength in depth is a huge positive. The hope is that you get to test that depth at our own discretion and not out of necessity.
With a side short just two players from the starting team that defeated New Zealand in such thrilling fashion last November — and with 11 players who spend the vast majority of their normal working week together in Leinster camp — Farrell’s focus in the pre-tournament camp in Portugal last week was on revision and fine tuning.
With so much familiarity and a deep understanding of the nuances of every player in the immediate vicinity, Ireland hold a distinct advantage heading into today’s encounter. That said, the refreshing brand of attacking rugby, with the focus on keeping the ball alive in the tackle, playing at a high tempo facilitated by a lightning quick recycle at the breakdown, took a long time for Farrell and attack coach Mike Catt to stitch together. It helps that Leinster play in a similar style.
Pivac has had to deal with an injury crisis which has weakened his hand considerably, in tandem with having to instil a belief and winning mentality in a squad of players with nothing to show for their collective efforts in Europe. The Welsh districts played eight games in this season’s Champions Cup and somehow contrived to lose all of them. In contrast, all four Irish provinces have made the knockout phase.
Wales have been down this road before however. A similar failure in Europe last season counted for nothing as Pivac’s men came within a try conceded against France in Paris with two minutes to go of winning a Grand Slam. In the end, they had to be satisfied with yet another Six Nations championship — their fourth in a decade.
The Welsh have always been bigger than the sum of their parts once they don that cherished red jersey. They know what’s coming if Ireland control the collisions and boss the breakdown. If they manage that, then the intoxicating attacking formula that defined Ireland’s autumn series has the capacity to blow this Welsh side away. The big question is, will they be able to replicate that blueprint given Pivac has spent the last two months devising a plan to negate it.
Having a plan is one thing, the issue facing Pivac is, given the injuries he’s had to absorb in his back row resources, has he the personnel today to implement his best laid plans?
With quality British and Irish Lions in Justin Tipuric, Josh Navidi, Dan Lydiate and Taulupe Faletau all ruled out and another in Ross Moriarty on the bench due to a lack of recent game time, the question for Wales is if their newly constructed back row can stall Ireland’s exciting new attacking shape by bossing the breakdown.
Pivac admitted recently that Wales struggled at the breakdown due to a lack of players equipped to clear out rucks efficiently during the autumn. He is acutely aware that Wales lost on his first visit to Dublin as head coach, two years ago, due to an inability to deal with the home side’s ruck speed.
If anything Ireland were even more dynamic in this key facet last November with a staggering 65% of their recycling at the ruck completed in three seconds or less. This is crucial in that it affords the defending team far less time to set their defensive line and impacts greatly on the line speed available to suffocate the attacking team’s ability to pass the ball into the wide channels.
To combat this Pivac has selected two specialist poachers in Ellis Jenkins and a rookie in Taine Basham, who was sensational throughout the autumn series. Between them Aaron Wainright is in a less familiar role at No 8 which could prove problematic if Ireland manage to put the squeeze on the Welsh scrum.
There is a familiarity about the all-Leinster Irish back row of Caelin Doris, Josh Van Der Flier and Jack Conan that offers them a distinct advantage heading into today’s contest. The fact that all three are also in excellent form is an added plus.
Ireland will be aware of the mayhem Jenkins and Basham will seek to cause at the breakdown and that’s where the first two supporting Irish players need to be ruthless in the clean out of the Welsh tackler and tackle assist player.
The key is in identifying the Welsh poaching threat as quickly as possible. The quicker they can be removed from the tackle zone, the faster Jamison Gibson-Park will get his hands on the ball to enable Johnny Sexton set his exciting back line in motion.
It will also enable Ireland dictate the tempo of the game, force Wales into making more tackles and, in the process wear them out. So many of this Welsh team have been impacted by Covid recently with the Scarlets players having only three games over two months.
If Ireland manage to negate the Welsh poaching threat on the deck, continue to produce three second rucks and take control of the gain line through the ball carrying threat posed by Doris, Conan, Tadhg Furlong and Andrew Porter, Wales will be in trouble.
While so much of modern rugby is prescribed, with players operating to set patterns that dictate their movements and involvement several phases in advance, there’s still plenty opportunities for the game breakers to seize their moments and influence the outcome of the game. The Springboks are a prime example of this.
So much of their plays are based on dominating physically and wearing down their opposition. Yet, on so many occasions, it’s their flair players on the wing in Cheslin Kolbe and Makazole Mapimpi that deliver the game breaking moments from unstructured, broken play.
Wales pose a similar threat from this source through their exciting back three where Louis Rees-Zammit has the capacity to create havoc. In a timely reminder of his ability to glide and burn defenders, his 70-metre try for Gloucester in their most recent outing against Newcastle has put Ireland on red alert.
In full back Liam Williams, Rees-Zammit has a kindred spirit. Who will ever forget the incredible try he set up for Sean O’Brien in the opening Lions test against New Zealand in 2017 when he set off on one of his mazy counter attacking breaks from deep.
On the other wing, naturalised former Crusaders Super Rugby star Johnny McNicholl offers yet another broken field threat.
The net result of this is that Ireland’s kicking game to the Welsh backfield needs to be spot on with plenty hang time and opportunity for the chasers to compete.
Farrell’s decision to promote Connacht’s Mack Hansen from left field on the back of his impressive scoring exploits on his debut season in the west represents a major declaration of intent. Hansen has been sensational from an attacking perspective and offers another layer to the attacking threats unveiled in the autumn.
By all accounts he made a compelling case for inclusion in the Portuguese training camp, in what amounts to a bold selection. Wales are sure to target him from a defensive perspective where some question marks remain.
The seamless understanding and familiarity that comes from starting that strong cohort of Leinster players appears in stark contrast to a Welsh side patched together in challenging circumstances.
Welsh pride has carried them a long way in this tournament in recent times. On this occasion, with Ireland looking far superior in the front five set piece battle, anything other than an Irish win will not only amount to a shock but a major setback for Farrell’s men.
