Daniel McConnell: Public has fallen out of love with Leo Varadkar
Tánaiste Leo Varadkar, the leader of Fine Gael, is set to become taoiseach again, for the second time, in 12 months. Picture: Damien Storan
In just 12 months’ time, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar, the leader of Fine Gael, is set to become taoiseach again for the second time.
This is, as we know, on foot of a deal done with Fianna Fáil and the Greens in 2020 to allow the two old enemies to rotate the position of taoiseach at the midway point in the lifetime of this Government.
Despite having a terrible general election last year, by the time he vacated office in June, Varadkar and Fine Gael’s stock was in the ascendancy, benefiting from the perceived solid handling of the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic.
At that stage and for several months thereafter, Varadkar remained the most popular party leader in the country and support for Fine Gael remained above 30%, well above the disastrous 20.9% it got on polling day.
His elevation to the top political office in the land in 2017 was widely welcomed as a tangible symbol of Ireland’s multiculturalism, inclusivity, and progressiveness.
For a long stretch of his tenure, Varadkar enjoyed near-total control of his party and his popular support was consistently higher than his main rivals, Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin and Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald.
An unremarkable local election result in 2019 was followed up by Fine Gael losing four by-elections on one day in November of that year, beginning the mutterings about his ability to win.
The 2020 general election was nothing short of a disaster for Fine Gael and put to bed the myth that Varadkar as leader was a vote-getter for the party.
Unable to fight in the battlegrounds of health and housing, Varadkar’s ammunition was deeply depleted, and the party was savaged.
From a high of 76 Dáil seats in 2011, Fine Gael now has just 35.
Despite the poor result, Varadkar escaped any calls for his head. He was given the benefit of the doubt by his battered and bruised party.
With the emergence of Covid-19, Varadkar and Fine Gael handled the pandemic in a way that saw poll ratings soar as the country looked to them for reassurance during a time of emergency.
The party’s support peaked at 37% on the eve of the change of government in June.
By the time the historic coalition with Fianna Fáil and the Green Party was formed in June, Varadkar was somewhat rehabilitated in the eyes of the party faithful and the increasingly fickle electorate.
Having wanted to go into opposition to try and rebuild his demoralised brigade, Varadkar felt the need to enter power again with the old enemies in Fianna Fáil in order to prevent Sinn Féin from seizing office.
In a rocky transition from taoiseach to becoming Tánaiste, Varadkar has repeatedly been guilty of seeking to play opposition from within government.
In an interview this summer, Martin told me that “counting to 10 is important” when dealing with Varadkar, a clear sign that he finds him utterly frustrating.
Things would go from bad to worse for Varadkar.
His broadside at Tony Holohan in October 2020 did lasting damage to relations between Government and the public health advisers and, given the prolonged lockdown which we soon after found ourselves in, the Fine Gael leader was seen as having gone overboard.
His impertinence meant that, when the crisis got bad over Christmas, a spooked Varadkar felt he had no political capital left to reprise his role as the necessary bulwark to Nphet.
More damaging in the long term was Varadkar leaking a copy of the GP contract to his “friend, but not good friend”, Maitiu O Tuathail of the National Association of General Practitioners.
While Varadkar insisted he broke no rules or crimes, he has been largely convicted in the court of public opinion of engaging in cronyism.
That the Tánaiste remains subjectto a continuing Garda investigation into the matter is an open sore which is festering.
The summer scandal around the proposed appointment of Katherine Zappone to a made-up paid job in the UN was primarily a Simon Coveney cock-up, but it was yet another cronyism row that Varadkar’s Fine Gael has had to combat.
Since the summer, what has been noticeable is the increasingly loud chorus of complaints at the weekly Fine Gael parliamentary party meetings from many who would have been seen as Varadkar loyalists.
It might be understandable that demoted former ministers such as John Paul Phelan, Michael Ring, Michael Creed, Richard Bruton, Joe McHugh, and Brendan Griffin would rail against their reduced status.
But when so-called neutrals such as Joe Carey and Kieran O’Donnell are speaking out at weekly meetings, it’s a clear sign that the ground is shifting away from Varadkar.
Worse still, in sharp contrast to the Fine Gael that took office under Varadkar in 2017, the dynamic and youthful front bench assembled by Varadkar — Simon Coveney, the now-departed Eoghan Murphy, Paschal Donohoe, Simon Harris, and Helen McEntee — now looks jaded and stale.
All of these factors have combined in a considerable slide in Fine Gael support from that high of 37% in June 2020, to 27% a year later to just 20% now, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll, published yesterday.
Party sources have played down any question of panic, saying the election is up to three years away. This is despite a clear majority, 57%, saying the Government has done a good job in managing Covid-19.
It is a curious conundrum but does show that the failure to act on housing and health is playing into the hands of Sinn Féin.
Donohoe, speaking on radio, said: “An election is certainly the last thing on my mind at the moment. We saw many great challenges from Covid to making progress on all of the other things to those we serve. Of course, I acknowledge there is a trend in recent polls. That is clear.”
The poll number places Fine Gael level with Fianna Fáil, 15 points behind Sinn Féin, which, on these numbers, can dream of 60-plus seats after the next election.
That downward trend for Fine Gael is the most concerning as it shows this is not a once-off or rogue event. This is a clear pattern and the people have clearly fallen out of love with Leo Varadkar.
Knowing this, he tried again last weekend to distance himself from the latest round of Covid-19 restrictions by calling their timing “peculiar”, comments which caused significant ire among his Coalition partners, who are becoming increasingly fed up with his outbursts.
As one Fine Gael source said to me, the decision of Fine Gael to try and “lay down a marker” against Nphet is a high-risk strategy in that by trying to be all things to all men, you end up being nothing to nobody.
The decision to go into Government based on the polls poses an existential threat to Fine Gael come the next election. On 20%, the party could easily drop to under 30 seats and would make any recovery even more difficult.
Fine Gael has been in government since 2011, so voter fatigue is not surprising —and the public is clearly seeking change.
They may not be panicking yet, but a year out from becoming taoiseach again, the future for Varadkar and Fine Gael is far from rosy and his return to that office is not a foregone conclusion.
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