Alison O'Connor: Bad Covid week poses questions on next steps — for us and Nphet

After being presented with the letter from Dr Holohan on Monday, with its dire predictions, there really was no choice for the Government but to go along with it. File picture: Brian Lawless

It’s impossible to predict what variant of Covid-19 we might face in September. But one thing that can be safely speculated on, for then, is a significant variant of Nphet, or indeed an entirely new body.

When the history of Covid is written, last Monday may well feature as a turning point. Clearly there have been other far worse days in terms of case numbers in the thousands and a rapidly rising number of deaths. However, it feels as if a seismic shift has taken place in terms of our future approach and how we live with this virus.

Nothing will be done right now. However, once the current phase of our vaccination programme has neared completion — probably around September — we are likely to see a new Nphet.

Numbers would be reduced from the current 32 or so people. Clearly there would be a number of the same people, not least chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan. However a reweighting will be considered to include different perspectives.

A pandemic makes everything twice as difficult. We have had almost 5,000 deaths but we look to have fared well compared to other countries. So much of that is down to Nphet.

Its members have truly done the State some magnificent service over the past year-and-a-half. There were times when it was incredibly tough, both physically and psychologically. 

But the time has come to move into a different realm now, a sense exacerbated by Nphet's approach this week when recommending that indoor hospitality be limited. 

The cohesion that previously existed among the public — a sense of togetherness — as evidenced by the exceptionally high vaccination levels achieved so far, has been seriously damaged.

The idea of allowing vaccinated people to dine inside while others remain outside, coupled with the fact that the young people serving them will not be vaccinated, has hit at the innate sense of fairness possessed by Irish people.

There is also the understandable reaction of bar and restaurant owners who say they will not get into the business of asking for proof of whether people have been jabbed.

Everyone feels desperately sorry for those in business. They have been left in limbo during what should be their busiest time of the year. 

Matters were not helped by how initially incoherent the Government was in its response.

After being presented with the letter from Dr Holohan on Monday, with its dire predictions, there really was no choice for the Government but to go along with it, especially given what happened at Christmas.

They looked to Scotland, where, from a base of around 200 six weeks ago, there has been a rapid rise in Delta-related cases, registering more than 3,200 this week, its highest ever number of daily cases. More than 200 people are in hospital, 20 in intensive care.

First minister Nicola Sturgeon said at a briefing on Tuesday that Delta cases may have hit their peak and be declining.

On social media, first minister Nicola Sturgeon advised additional caution. “The good news is that vaccines are providing significant protection, we’re not at this stage seeing a commensurate rise in the numbers of people in hospital or becoming seriously ill from this virus, but it’s important that we are not complacent.” 

She also said at a briefing on Tuesday that it may have hit its peak and be declining.

Severity of illness is a crucial point in terms of establishing just how deadly the Delta variant can be — clearly having differing levels of severity in those who are vaccinated and those who are not. Some 60% of the Scotland population has been jabbed. 

HSE chief executive Paul Reid said on Wednesday that almost 67% of adults here have had their first dose and 44% their second. But what Scotland and Ireland do not yet fully know is if the numbers in hospital or becoming seriously ill will rise significantly.

So the Government was presented with an alarming scenario last Monday by Nphet.

There is a strong feeling within Government that Nphet left a lot to be desired in its approach; that Dr Holohan bears the psychological scars of the CervicalCheck controversy and this informs what is viewed as his exceptionally cautious approach. There is further evidence of this caution in the utter intransigence on the use of antigen tests, making us outliers.

The first evidence of this new approach is the decision to go ahead anyway with antigen testing and set up a separate group to do this, chaired by Royal College of Physicians of Ireland president Mary Horgan. 

So the sense this week is the time has come for change.

There is a list of things that irked the Government about the Nphet approach. Why didn’t the group meet in the morning rather than gathering in the afternoon, therefore reporting complex information and figures late in the day to the Government? It is wondered why a date was not given for indoor dining rather than leaving the situation hanging, further tormenting publicans and business owners.

There was some puzzlement that the modelling provided combined the Alpha and the Delta variant, when it is Delta that is in the ascendant, and also that the modelling was presented in a monthly format, as opposed to the previous 5/7/14-day incidence.

There was annoyance too that no member of Nphet took to the airwaves — although apparently repeatedly invited to do so — in the wake of the bombshell advice to explain the rationale, instead leaving the politicians to face the pressure.

On a wider scale, it is interesting to note, as reported by AFP this week, that over 3bn doses of Covid-19 vaccines have been given across the world. It took 20 weeks to administer the first billion, but only four for the last billion.

We are in a different space now with Covid. The Delta variant will not be the last one to cause us concern. Our mindset needs adjusting. It’s interesting to see that Singapore has just announced that it will be fundamentally changing how it deals with Covid. Singapore has been notably successful in how it has dealt with the virus.

In an editorial in the Straits Times, three senior government ministers wrote: “The bad news is that Covid-19 may never go away. The good news is that it is possible to live normally with it in our midst."

They added: “We can’t eradicate it, but we can turn the pandemic into something much less threatening, like influenza or chickenpox, and get on with our lives."

On RTÉ’s Today with Claire Byrne show on Wednesday, Green Party leader and Environment Minister Eamon Ryan said we are entering into the phase “where we will be living with Covid”, which was different from the earlier approach. 

There are vaccines now. Circumstances have changed and we are “going to have to manage in a whole variety of ways”. 

Earlier in the week, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar sent out similar signals, saying we would have to decide on our long-term approach.

It’s been a bad Covid week. There will be better ones. We definitely have decisions to make.