Trump and Brexit loom over year ahead

Let’s hope the coming year brings better tidings than those received from the one we’re leaving. Twas a year to remember and a year to forget.

On the remembering side, the commemorations for 1916 went better than could be expected. At the outset of 2016 there was great trepidation about what was on the way.

Were we destined to, as Yeats remarked on the reaction to the opening night of O’Casey’s Plough and the Stars, “disgrace ourselves once again”.

Not a bit of it. With President Michael D Higgins leading the nation, the commemorations struck the correct balance of solemnity, remembrance and reconciliation, particularly on Easter Sunday.

The cultural bells and whistles over the Easter weekend added plenty to the occasion, opening up the whole affair to every citizen, whatever their politics or hue. Credit where it is due. The build-up to the year was shaky and in places downright ridiculous but, when the occasion came round, we saw the best of what we have to offer.

On the commemoration front, the glory of ’16 has been dealt with and everything moves on to the messier, divisive, years that followed in the birth of a nation.

So we did well at remembering history but the challenge for the coming year will be how this country fares after the making of history in 2016.

Brexit hangs over everything like a shovelful of manure. If things turn sour then it is this country that will suffer the greatest. Teresa May has pledged to kick things off with the triggering of article 50, allowing for the UK’s exit from the union by the end of March.

The term “triggering” says it all. Will it be a shot in the air to get things motoring at pace or will it trigger some kind of an economic explosion, the debris of which will land here in John Bull’s other island?

If the runes offer no clues as to how exactly May and her people will engineer the leaving, there is even less hint of what impact the Trump presidency will have on the world.

The orange-haired snake oil salesman has a major problem to address before he even takes up office. He has given numerous hostages to fortune, and he will have to come up with a ransom fairly pronto.

There will be no wall along the Mexican border but he will be under pressure to match his tough talk with tough action against illegal immigration. Already a number of mayors in US cities have said they will reject any attempts to engage in the kind of jackboot tactics that Trump has hinted at.

There will be no return of the secure jobs to the rust belt states. The poverty that is spreading across the heartlands has been a slow burner, as successive administrations have failed to grasp how to revitalise communities that have been devastated by both technology and open trade.

Trump has ignored technology and claims that he will bring jobs back by reversing trade deals with other countries. Good luck with that, and good luck with explaining it to his cabinet of billionaires who, like him, have long depended on open trade to add to their fortunes.

His plans for deregulation, tax cutting and infrastructural spending will take care of the short term, and he won’t be around when deregulation leads towards the kind of abuses that saw the world economy crash eight years ago. He might also want to consult Bertie Ahern on the likely outcome when a government chooses to both cut taxes and increase spending.

The problem will arise when those who genuinely believed that Trump would make America great again cop that he is doing nothing to better their lives. Then he will engage in that which is one of his main tactics - distraction.

Will he, in the crude manner perfected by his kindred spirit Vladamir Putin, just start a war? Or will he turn his anger on “outsiders”, such a minorities of one sort or another within US borders, or even nation states that could easily be labelled as tax havens sucking jobs from America. Like this country. Don’t bet against it.

One almost certain casualty will be attempts to arrest the destruction of the planet through climate change. Trump says he doesn’t believe the scientists who, almost universally, attribute changing climate to man-made factors.

To acknowledge that would be to face the messy problem of how to address it in a manner that minimises economic impact. The President-elect has no stomach for such complex problems, particularly as he won’t be around when the real cost falls due.

Back home, the coming year will largely reveal how the political tsunamis that have hit both sides of the Atlantic will wash over us. Brexit and Trump will, to a large extent, determine how we get through 2017 from an economic perspective.

Domestically, there are many problems to be addressed, none more so than housing. Whether or not the country can finally come to terms with its obligation to provide basic shelter for all its people remains to be seen.

As noted in this column last week, the objective set out in the Housing Strategy launched in the summer is to ensure that within twelve months nobody should be condemned to sleeping in hotel rooms. If that aim is fulfilled it will be an indication as to the bona fides of this government in tackling the crisis.

If not, they should be forced to pay a major political price.

The state of the public finances, and particularly public pay, is going to be the other major issue over the coming months.

If the state is heading into another period of sluggish growth or recession, then it is imperative that the public finances are in some kind of order.

Socially, the major issue will be the eighth amendment. There now appears to be an unstoppable momentum towards repeal of the amendment, which is likely to accelerate once the citizens assembly reports.

There is, however, one major stumbling block that could see the issue, like so many others, slid up onto the long finger. What will replace the constitutional provision if it is amended?

On that there is little agreement. Those most vocal in the repeal movement would appear to advocate a liberal system where a woman decides what to do with her own body. There is scant evidence that such an approach has any widespread appeal. Hearts and minds are there to be won on all sides, but if history is anything to go by the battle will be ugly.

So, from this vantage, 2017 is not awaiting with open arms. There is much to be wary about. But memory is short. Notwithstanding the travails that await, the country and its people are in better shape than was the case a few short years ago. Happy New Year, and let’s hope it’s a good one.