Jockeying for position in leadership race even before Kenny signals exit

Leo may not get the job for being too interesting and Simon may not get it for not being interesting enough, writes Alison O’Connor

At this moment in time, it is difficult to see anyone other than Leo Varadkar being the next leader of Fine Gael. Post-budget last week, as he did the rounds of the broadcast studios, it was hard not to be struck, yet again, by what a gifted communicator he is; how ably he gets his message across. And yet.

The last few days also brought a reminder relating to the other man seen as likely contender for that top job — Simon Coveney.

This newspaper’s political editor, Daniel McConnell, and fellow author John Lee have a new book out: Hell at the Gates.

In it, former taoiseach Brian Cowen speaks about that infamous Morning Ireland interview he did, and the subsequent tweet sent by Mr Coveney saying the then Fianna Fáil leader sounded somewhere between drunk and hungover.

Remembering that tweet made me think what an out-of-character act that was for Mr Coveney. It’s probably the most “interesting” thing he’s ever done or said politically, I found myself thinking, and maybe ever will do.

That immediately felt like an unkind thought. But it sums up the issue really — Leo may not get the job for being too interesting and Simon may not get it for not being interesting enough.

And that is where Justice Minister Frances Fitzgerald may come in. Could she end up being the Theresa May figure in this scenario? It should be said, though, in fairness to the two men, that they bear no comparison to those delinquents, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove.

There is a feeling abroad at present, and it may simply be wishful thinking, that Taoiseach Enda Kenny will make his way to Washington as usual in March for the handing over of the bowl of shamrock, and that, upon his return, he will announce his intention to step down at a date in the not too distant future.

There are a number of assumptions within that, the chief one being that Enda actually intends to step down. Anyway, whether he intends to or not, patience will be well running out at that stage; that “honourable” Fine Gael approach of letting him go in his own time will have begun to wear really thin within the parliamentary party.

As Brexit begins to look increasingly messy for all involved, there is talk doing the rounds of what a wonderful Brexit ambassador Enda would make.

The budget last week also gave Leo great overall political exposure. In truth, he has Fianna Fáil to thank for that. During the summer, that party’s social protection spokesman, Will O’Dea, said that €5 a week should be give to pensioners in the budget.

This immediately upped the ante to Fine Gael. It gave leave to Leo to hit back on behalf of his own party, thereby hitting the headlines.

His riposte was that while pensioners were certainly worthy of an increase, a number of other vulnerable groups could not be forgotten. FF continued to concentrate on the Social Protection Minister in the run-up to budget day, giving him a wonderful boost.

What it also did, and somewhat significantly, I thought, was to give licence to some of Leo’s main supporters in the parliamentary party for the leadership, such as Dublin TD Noel Rock, to come out and publicly support him. This was done under the guise of accusing Fianna Fáil of using the budget to undermine Leo as a potential party leader.

As Mr Rock said at the time, the FF’ers were looking at the same polling as they were and that Leo is liked by voters from all sides, an important factor in any future general election.

The polls are certainly on Leo’s side when it comes to who would be the next best FG leader. It’s seen in FG as his rock star appeal, that certain something that transcends party politics and makes him instantly recognisable, even to those who are not traditional FG supporters

. After an exceptionally bruising general election campaign, it is Leo’s potential to pull in votes from all over that has them trying not to drool.

Leo would not be the most popular minister around the Cabinet table, with many colleagues feeling that, in a business where egos are a necessity, the Dublin TD triumphs at looking after Number 1.

While the public may see him as a straight talker, some of them see him as utterly strategic in terms of what he says and how he says it, always with an eye to his own future.

As things stand, there is no official leadership campaign but Leo is well out of the blocks.

He is 24/7 schmoozing in a way that surprises some who would have questioned his commitment in the past.

While he has been dubbed the show pony, it is Simon Coveney, the workhorse, who gets the real respect of his colleagues and who is seen as more collegiate.

However they are unsure of the Corkman’s intellectual capacity (unfortunately for him in a way similar to how they are unsure, to this day, of Enda Kenny’s) and his star power.

He’s the Steady Eddie of the operation, slogging away; first at the seemingly interminable government formation talks, and now trying to solve the national accommodation crisis. They admire his dedication, but also wonder if he will ever succeed.

There has been a sense that Ms Fitzgerald has not been in this race, although she has repositioned herself in recent weeks. Every political contest takes on its own dynamic once the starting whistle is blown. If events are to move quickly, and you could never rule that out, that could be said to favour the Justice Minister. She could be seen as a vote for stability, a caretaker in the role, and her gender an added bonus in terms of seeming modern.

She has a major industrial relations issue on her desk with the threatened action by An Garda Síochána, which could be potentially very damaging.

She put a shot across the bows of the two men last week with a speech she gave at a London School of Economics Irish alumni event. It could certainly be classed as a political speech in which she sets out her vision.

She spoke of how she began her career as a social worker at St Ultan’s Children’s Hospital in Dublin. It was a place where a lot of people subject to terrible disadvantage brought their children, gave birth to them, and sometimes abandoned them. She said it exposed her to real disadvantage for the first time.

“And it made me angry. My belief that disadvantage and barriers to opportunity are the greatest causes of inequality began to galvanise. Opportunity had been the defining theme of my life, and my family’s lives. It still is,” she said.

Increasingly, she said, she wanted to do something about it, to channel it somewhere: “The anger over disadvantage and the belief in equality of opportunity drove me forward into this political world. Those same things guide everything I do in politics to this day.”

She also spoke of alienation and “people feeling left behind” and of her long-term “strong feminism”. Interestingly, the speech received very little coverage. If Leo had done something similar, his bon mots would have made the front pages. So the question remains — show pony, workhorse, or somewhere in between?