The ‘establishment’ parties still command a clear majority ahead of General Election

The three ‘establishment’ parties may be diminished, but they command a clear majority writes Gerard Howlin

THE decks are almost cleared and the scene is set for the next election. The Dáil will rise tomorrow for the Christmas recess. There is a yarn going around that the Taoiseach will pre-empt events and ask the President for a dissolution before it resumes in January. I doubt that, though.

It would forestall the banking inquiry, and smack of a stroke. On the other hand, if, because of legal difficulties, the inquiry cannot meet its deadline, there would be no obligation on Mr Kenny to await a train that isn’t ever coming. Let’s see. Either way, the phoney war is on and the real one is not far off.

One of the less reported aspects of the parliamentary process, in recent weeks, has been meetings of Oireachtas committees to give the nod (with hardly more than cursory examination) to the additional €1.5bn in supplementary estimates announced by the Government on the Friday night before budget day.

Right 2 Water announces national day of protest to keep campaign as 'No.1 election issue' https://t.co/eApHw6U3uS pic.twitter.com/lvizwoQV8W

— Irish Examiner (@irishexaminer) December 15, 2015

I smiled when I saw Joan Burton announce that if Labour was to be in government again it would push for a 70:30 split between public spending and tax cuts. The joke, though nobody seems prepared to tell it in public, is that if you add in the extra €1.5bn pushed into this year’s spending, we are there already, and then some.

Most of it has gone on a health expenditure that, in spite of being as much as other comparable European models, consistently delivers less. And, no, those health policies promised by former health minister James Reilly, at the last election, haven’t been delivered. They have been binned.

Given the crying need for reform in health, and of the necessity for a full-frontal challenge of the vested interests who control it (largely in their own interests), Reilly’s waste of the crisis of the past four and a half years is epic squander. He found an imperfect HSE, slowly making appreciable gains under its CEO, Cathal McGee. He jettisoned that, caused chaos, delivered nothing by way of appreciable reform, and now almost the same system is resulting in more people on trolleys and more human misery. That money, almost half a billion more than budgeted, is what it takes to keep a creaking system on standstill. Nobody said it would be easy. The Government has only itself to blame for promising too much.

My criticism isn’t that they have failed to deliver as promised. That was pie in the sky. They have done feck all and have let the one moment pass, when an extraordinary crisis could have been used to get rid of some of those groups that prey on a dysfunctional system.

Joan Burton: Labour Party on 'high level of alert' for General Election https://t.co/Z51kJtNPSo pic.twitter.com/RoW3eHWEk4

— Irish Examiner (@irishexaminer) December 14, 2015

There is, I suppose, some consolation looking at the performance of Health Minister Leo Varadkar. He dispenses empathy without stooping to actual engagement. Those are exactly the qualities of indifference and detachment essential in a Taoiseach. In a line minister, to whom is delegated the actualité of government, more might be expected.

Especially as it is considered the Taoiseach’s prerogative to sit on his horse, high on the hill above the fray, and, if required for the greater interest of all, to leave intact. For now, the budgetary process, which Brendan Howlin promised would be “fundamentally changed”, remains. No spendthrift who can get another overdraft will ever reform. Howlin failed to reform the overall process and he failed completely to instil effective spending controls on the health service. One followed from the other, as night followed day.

The legacy of a civil service, a health service, a public transport service, and a legal system which all successfully saw off fundamental change will return to haunt our longer-term prospects. For now, the boom is getting boomier. Brexit, China, Isis, the Middle East, currency fluctuation or energy prices are just some reasons why bumper exchequer returns may be fool’s gold. But no matter, we are going to spend it anyway. Economic decisions are always politically driven, and this Government has made its call. Now, it will take its chances.

One thing about the next election is that if you add Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Labour together — the old two-and-a-half-party system — there is a clear majority for some sort of risk-averse continuity that also starts to deliver a dividend for voters. The three “establishment” parties may collectively be much diminished, but they do command a clear majority, which says a lot about where most people are at, politically, in spite of all that has happened.

It won’t be as simple as that, of course. There won’t be any such three-party coalition. The defining issue of the forthcoming campaign is if Fine Gael and Labour, with others, can make it over the line to form a government. Labour could be decimated, but I firmly believe it is not over for them, yet.

Dept. of Health overspend solutions could hamper election promises, reports @Ocionnaith https://t.co/Ef3y1sjrzr pic.twitter.com/E7QRuOOB8S

— Irish Examiner (@irishexaminer) December 12, 2015

A small shift back towards them, from even a few of their voters who went to Sinn Féin, or a tactical rebalancing by some who don’t want too much Fine Gael domination in the next administration, could make all the difference.

The orchestrated posturing among Labour TDs, that they won’t go in again without solid numbers in the mid-teens, or a vote of 10%-plus that would allow them real influence, is deeply amusing. Without those numbers they won’t be asked in, because it won’t be enough, so they needn’t worry.

But what if the current coalition can’t make it back in some shape or form? Then, we are spinning the roulette wheel.

One option, though little considered, is that of a Fianna Fáil/ Sinn Féin coalition. It, too, may require additional support. If it is a theoretical option, its practical application depends on the two parties being reasonably finely balanced in size, if Sinn Féin is to be tempted to be the slightly smaller partner. That, if it materialised, would be an epic upset of the apple tart.

Both parties will be much larger in the next Dáil, but both have a negative tailback, especially Sinn Féin.

The very prospect of this alliance, despite what its putative partners have to say, may be a key card for the coalition to play.

No Sinn Féin ard fheis ahead of 2016 election https://t.co/F4ObY71kmy (RMC) pic.twitter.com/UAi8J3kaqc

— Irish Examiner (@irishexaminer) December 12, 2015

They have already lavished promises on the electorate and now they need to instil fear: fear of the unknown and fear of the alternative.

In a sense, changes of parties and personalities aside, the chance for great change has passed; wasted. It will not return. Anti-Austerity Alliance is right about Sinn Féin. They are not in any sense a radical, left-wing alternative. Their positioning is tactical, flexible and reversible.

That is what makes their coalition with Fianna Fáil conceivable. The disgruntled electorate will lift up its head in the new year to look at what is on offer. Their first instinct will be to kick the Government. The second, which will rapidly overtake the first, will be to look after themselves.