Do referenda have the vote of the people?

VOTERS face between three and six referenda in the first half of 2015. They will be asked to decide on lowering the voting age to 16, lowering the age threshold for candidates for the presidency from 35, and to decide on marriage equality.

All three of these proposals are recommendations from the Constitutional Convention. There were fears, when the convention was announced, that the Government might not act on its recommendations. However, this is not the case and the Government is proceeding.

There are a number of other proposals from the convention that are awaiting a final decision, and more referenda could yet be announced: On blasphemy, voting rights for emigrants, and the position of women in the home.

The Programme for Government mentions five referenda in the constitutional-reform section.

Four have taken place, but the fifth, on protection for citizen communications with public representatives, has yet to make the agenda.

Further judicial changes have also been mooted. In any case, next year will be a bonanza for referenda.

The Government has had mixed success with referenda. Four of the six proposals that have been put to referendum have been accepted (Seanad abolition and Oireachtas inquiries were both defeated).

There are a number of arguments when scheduling referenda. Turnout at all referenda since 1937 averages at 51%, but this figure obscures wide variation. When referenda are combined with other elections turnout is higher, but it is not unusual for turnout to fall below 40% when referenda are scheduled on their own.

However, the most important determinant of turnout at referenda is the question being asked of voters and the importance that they attach to it.

The Government faces a considerable challenge in ensuring robust engagement with two of the proposals they have confirmed will be on ballot papers in 2015.

The voting age and the age threshold for candidates for the presidency are minor technical issues of political design. Political nerds probably won’t have strong opinions on them, and the wider public is likely to have no opinion at all. But the campaign will be critical in alerting people that these referenda lie ahead and also in informing voters of the arguments on either side.

Some material is already available, as the Constitutional Convention has an archive on each of the items. Lowering the voting age is on the political agenda in several countries, so international experience can be examined.

While presidential elections are among our most lively and controversial, the presidential age limit is rarely considered. It is difficult to see a substantial campaign on either side of this question.

Indeed, drawing from the experience of recent technical referenda, it may be difficult to find active campaign groups to participate in either campaign, and this is a challenge for broadcast media, who are critical to the delivery of comprehensive voter information.

Marriage equality is quite different and it is likely voters will have a predisposition on this proposal. The issue will pull from a deep divide in Irish politics, between liberals and conservatives. There will be strong voices on both sides, but this may yet pose a challenge, in that the issue could overshadow the other questions before the electorate.

All of this discussion directs toward the need to have adequate preparation and organisation of referendum campaigns.

While the Government has promised that an electoral commission will be established in the autumn, no details have been released.

It is expected that the referendum commission will become a permanent branch of the electoral commission, and that this will provide ongoing voter education (on how and why we change the Constitution), and voter information at each referendum.

The use of referenda has been growing internationally and Ireland is at the forefront, so there is enormous work to be done.

However, a permanent electoral commission will require legislation, and the existing legislation on the referendum commission will have to be repealed. And all of this will have to happen in the next few months, if we are to have an effective agency in place, and be in a position to run comprehensive information campaigns on several issues concurrently.

Successive referendum commissions have argued that their work was made more difficult because of late establishment. A new referendum commission is created for each referendum day and six months of preparation is the minimum needed for a commission to be effective in providing comprehensive voter information.

Election and referendum administration in Ireland has become moribund. After the disaster of electronic voting, no effort has been made to update, and develop, the way we run elections.

Overall responsibility for election policy lies with the Department of the Environment, but most of the administration of elections and referenda is carried out by staff in local authorities.

Councils are often under-resourced and election work is not top priority. Enhancing the current system will require new policies, an openness to new ideas, and some additional resources.

There are a couple of models of election administration and the Programme for Government suggests that co-management is planned. This should mean a small commission and policy team, probably no more than 20 people, who would consolidate election administration in one area and oversee its practice.

There are a couple of priorities. There is an urgent need to evaluate the system for voter registration. The current approach is not systematic, and there are fears that the registers over-estimate the number of eligible voters. Critically, we need to trial strategies that could make voting easier and more convenient. Advance voting, postal voting, and even internet voting have been tested by many of our European neighbours. Ballot-paper design needs some consideration and there was controversy at the Seanad abolition referendum, with some voters reporting confusion about the wording of the question.

It seems unlikely that any of these changes could be considered adequately in time for the next round of referenda, in 2015. This begs the question why the Government has proceeded with so many referenda, without delivering a fundamental reform that could be a building block for its political-reform agenda.

Finally, two things to remember: Voters can become fatigued if they face too many elections, and voters have a high degree of trust in the integrity of the election/referendum process in Ireland.

Any changes should be carefully planned and designed to enhance the process.

* Theresa Reidy is a lecturer in the department of government at University College Cork