Government failure to reform the system is a recipe for disaster

It is a racing certainty there will be a fourth. If you want to bet your money on the coalition staying around until October 2015 and delivering a fifth budget for 2016 — go ahead. I’ll keep mine in my pocket for now.
Either way by October 15 most of the substantive economic decisions this government will take, will have been taken. The following May there will be local and European elections. There will be an Irish nominee to the European Commission and perhaps an exit strategy for Enda Kenny into Herman Van Rompuy’s job. Whichever, there will be a cabinet reshuffle. It may feel like the prime of political life when it counts the candles on the birthday cake, but in dog years the Government is on the run-in back to the kennels after budget day.