Looking beyond the nine-day wonders of the year that was

CONSULTANTS, specialising in crisis public relations, tell you most media cycles don’t endure beyond nine days. From breaking of stories to revelations and reactions from every angle, they are usually wrapped up in three days.

More detailed postmortem analysis can pick at bones of the carcass, but the story commonly doesn’t extend into next week. Journalists are preoccupied with new news — regularly displacing importance with urgency. At the cusp of the calendar, we can reflect on the passing year to see the wood from the trees on issues and patterns where profound change is occurring.

The top line stories of 2011 are mere tombstone details. Headlines? We saw the demise of Osama bin Laden and Libya’s Gaddafi. Sadly, we lost Garrett FitzGerald and Brian Lenihan from public life. Japanese floods and Arab Spring regime changes captured world attention. Domestic mega events were visits of the Queen and Obama.

It was an historic year in politics. The general election resulted in the anticipated FG/Labour government, with an unprecedented majority. Over the past 70 years throughout varying party fortunes, who could have predicted Fianna Fáil would end up the year with no seat in the greater Dublin area? This relates the most profound shift in public attitudes.

Voter volatility has reached a new plateau. Civil War politics is dead, party loyalty is buried. If Fianna Fáil can be pulverised from 77 to 19 TDs, much worse can happen to every other party. Tribal FF DNA runs deeper than anywhere else. FG received a stark reminder of how fickle their 36% vote was when Gay Mitchell obtained a derisory 6% of first preferences in the presidential election. Voter mobility is an irreversible trend. The big known unknown in Irish politics is whether the inevitable decline in FG and Labour support will recycle to FF or Sinn Féin or create an opportunity for a new political party. Already the most recent opinion poll indicated the block support for a combination of FG/Labour and FF/SF each stood at 41%.

Allegiance shifts can now occur over months instead of years. The electorate still crave populist short-sighted opportunism. Campaigns are being ramped up against the €100 household charge in order to provide localised platforms to connect with residents’ groups and door-to-door calls. It’s preferable to Athens riots, but it’s shallow and amounts to cul-de-sac politics of protest. For all superficial appearances of change, our politics remains fundamentally flawed. The culture of clientelism prevails. Dáil deputies and career senators are ever more vigorous social and community workers. Core value is job survival constructed on personalised advocacy of constituents. This won’t change without radical electoral reform.

A significant subliminal conclusion of the year’s political events was deepening of partition. Fault lines of the Irish political landscape were predicated upon rational or emotional attachment to a 32-county united Ireland. Sectarian strife, blatant bigotry and vicious violence were never part of society in the south. Responses to Martin McGuinness’s presidential candidature and final tally of 13% spoke volumes. Removal of border road funds occurred without widespread dissent. Contrasting currencies and varying EU perspectives copperfasten future administrative separation.

Politics everywhere is engulfed by economics. Political leaders have been firmly behind curves and markets since the credit crunch struck in 2007. EU structures have been unable to cope with global recession, systemic banking insolvencies, national fiscal deficits and unsustainable sovereign debts. At year-end, a solution to illiquidity emerged with ECB three-year finance for more than 500 European banks with €489 billion. This firepower can refinance government bonds, as markets won’t. Ultimately, debt restructuring at every level (state, banks, corporates and individuals) remains the only permanent solution. The eurozone crisis may only be in early stages and take a decade to resolve.

The difference this time, around EU summit tables, is lack of common solidarity. Merkel and Sarkozy avoid vision beyond domestic agendas and personal survival. Cameron will prevent a new treaty, so Dublin’s IFSC will escape a Tobin transaction tax. Democratic deficits across the union cement euro scepticism, which may derail greater integration. Meanwhile, the bigger picture is lost sight of — transformation of emerging economies to displace the Western world. China, India, Brazil and Mexico will dominate the top 10 by 2050. Declining demographics ensure top EU states will slip down league table of output and wealth. Competitiveness attrition will drive investment eastwards. Divergent GDP growth in opposite directions is gathering pace.

Shifting tectonic plates over decades are impacting severely on business. After four consecutive years of downward trends in revenue, commercial management have exhausted survival techniques. The menu so far consists of cost-cutting, workplace efficiency, streamlined cash flow terms, innovative marketing, leaner margins, smarter investment and contraction of balance sheets. Some 46,000 companies have folded. More will follow. Realisation of deeper trauma is evident. Business models, not just enterprises, are in peril. Scales of operation or brand reputation are no defence. Amongst those to bite the dust: Superquinn; Sunday Tribune; Four Seasons Hotel; Ashford Castle; Quinn Insurance and the Oxegen concerts.

The overall net result is withdrawal of capacity in every service sector (public and private). Rationalisation and consolidation, through mergers and acquisitions, will gather pace as financiers replace boardroom directors as decision makers. This decade will sadly be the last for so many long-standing established firms. Fallout for the “Skype generation” is endemic emigration, with an average weekly exodus of 800. Most notable over the festive period has been the spending impetus of those temporary returning residents.

Year end also allows us to benchmark one relentless societal change. The world is inexorably becoming a smaller place. Success stories of Irish commerce have one common theme. Ryanair, CRH, Diageo, Kerry Foods and Paddy Power now consider their Irish operations to be almost a minor legacy feature of their worldwide activity. Aviation has reduced arrival at any destination to less than 20 hours. Google search is displacing conventional curiosity. The Facebook generation converse with each other online. Contemporary romance starts on the internet, with a majority of first dates connecting in cyberspace rather than the pub.

Escapism for many males remains sport. Success, in the professional era, is constructed around the best business plans. The solution to a full trophy cupboard is based on investment levels. Leinster rugby unlocked this door better than any outfit in Europe, hence two out of three Heineken trophies. Pat Gilroy’s Dubs’ Sam McGuire victory was on foot of a €1m outlay. Trapattoni delivered, where Staunton imploded, at a cheque book price. Sheikh Mansour’s cash will reap more dividends at Manchester City. Hallmarks of next year’s winning Olympians will be no different. Thankfully, us poor punters can enjoy these allegiances as antidotes to dreary depression.

Happy New Year.