Michael D will be our next President by default rather than acclamation

THREE weeks today, we will elect Ireland’s ninth president.

Available evidence suggests the contest is over, bar campaigning. As with the general election, early, accurate prognosis provided certain predictability. Michael D Higgins is in an unassailable position. Even discovery of a love child or inappropriate representations are unlikely to derail his momentum. He can pick up 40% net transfers of eliminated candidates. His big negative — being 70 years old, with visible mobility problems — pales into insignificance compared to competitors’ drawbacks. Others are wilting under the spotlight.

Based on last February’s election, this was Fine Gael’s prize to lose. With 36% party support and no Fianna Fáil contender, their organisational strength and financial resources (circa €400k) should have ensured front-runner status. On 9 July their electoral college (principally parliamentary party), deemed party allegiance and loyalty was the primary quality required of their candidate. This arrogant sense of entitlement was misguided. Private opinion polls about potential of Pat Cox and Mairéad McGuinness were ignored. Gay Mitchell has decent chances of topping the poll as the first-ever directly elected Lord Mayor of Dublin — not the presidency.

Why is Gay languishing in the polls? A Dublin taxi driver best summed it up for me when explaining “he’s too much of a politician”. When it comes to the Áras, voters don’t want another career politician. They want charisma, refinement, a gentleman/lady, dignity and a CV that is not confined to politics. Fixers and street fighters need not apply. The presidency is perceived as being above party political fray, requiring an aloofness or eccentricity that deviates from professional public representatives. Mitchell’s transfers should push Higgins past 30%. A mutual transfer pact between coalition partners has been tacitly agreed. FG’s priority has been redefined as ensuring defeat of Martin McGuinness.

Heavy artillery from Brigadier Phil Hogan highlighted downside risks to foreign investment of having a former “terrorist “as head of state. Chief whip Paul Kehoe dispatched a tweet torpedo, claiming McGuinness had access to proceeds from the Northern Bank raid. FG want a knockdown drag out bruising battle with Sinn Féin. This is not to boost Mitchell’s flagging prospects. Instead, it’s an attempt to pre-empt a most antagonistic potential relationship between government and president.

The role of president exists within a straitjacket. Article 13.9 of the Constitution asserts that powers and functions of the president are carried out “on the advice of the government ”. Foreign travel is subject to their approval. Martin McGuinness denies he was a member of the Provisional IRA since 1974. FG believes this is a blanket bluff and intend to call it. The basic charge is that if he accurately claims he convinced PIRA into a ceasefire, decommissioning and recognition of the PSNI — how did he achieve it, without being a senior member of the organisation? Some 1,700 people were killed as a result of their vicious campaign of violence and 60% were Catholics. Between 1969 and 1994 (first ceasefire), there is ample corroborating evidence from security forces that McGuinness was a central Army Council figure.

His conviction in the special criminal Court in 1973 as member of Oglaidh Na hEireann resulted in imprisonment. His evidence to the Saville inquiry confirmed he was a senior member of the Derry Brigade on Bloody Sunday. He was found to be proficient with a Thomson sub-machine gun. The ITV Cook Report (1993) revealed claims from British agent Scappaticci that McGuinness had final word on fate of informers. Media fatigue with stonewall denials, doesn’t prevent the public from making up their own mind about the truth. Mary Davis may have airbrushed posters, McGuinness stands accused of amnesia of barbaric events such as the murder of Detective Jerry McCabe, the Warrington bomb in 1993 that killed Tim Parry (12 years) and Lord Mountbatten’s murder in 1979.

Unpalatable truth, that remains unspoken, is latent prejudice and dislike of “Nordies” by significant elements of southern public opinion. When we say “buy Irish” we mean goods and services from the Republic. Same applies to inward investment projects. Beneath the surface, there is abhorrence of naked bigotry and sectarianism in Northern society. Northern nationalists believe we have guilt in the 26 counties about abandoning them. We don’t. We disavow contagion of violence. Partitionism is subliminal, but deep-rooted. They rant against the Brits, yet couldn’t survive without UK state subvention.

David Norris’s campaign is in trouble. Erstwhile supporters now claim their efforts were merely to secure his place on the ballot paper, rather than ultimate election. The Ezra Nawi letters controversy just won’t go away. Presumably, their publication would be even more damaging than unsustained excuses of legal privilege. His original appeal as an endearing eccentric academic, with a plummy accent, provided him with charisma to attract voters. Lately, his pronouncements have been, loud and brash — even arrogant. His pseudo-attempts at the common touch, appear contrived and fake. His homosexuality is acceptable, but an active use of the Áras as a focal point for gay rights campaigns is feared by traditionalists. His candidature may implode. His prospects of winning are evaporating.

Dana has replaced bland rhetoric about “people” and “trust” with assertions that she will protect the Constitution from amendment by the EU. This incorrect analysis of the functions of the office has worse implications of trying to retard the country’s modernisation. Our Constitution reflects ongoing rapid change in society. It’s subject to incremental progressive continual updates. Bookmakers make her a no hoper at odds of 50 to 1. Her late entry and limited organisation mean she may not recover her election expenses by achieving 12.5% of the poll. Sean Gallagher, (40/1), maintains, if elected, that he can propel enterprise. This Dragon, often appears out of his depth and struggles to remain competitive.

Mary Davis conducts spirited campaign, but has a few crucial insurmountable hurdles. A third Mary is deemed to be repetitive, unoriginal, ill-timed and consequently unlikely. Her mean spiritedness in refusing to release nomination opportunities by councils was a negative. A concerted hatchet job has been done on her proximity to Bertie Ahern. Her appointment to the DAA and Broadcasting Commission of Ireland was magnified by her agreement to support the Bertie Bowl fantasy project at Abbotstown. €390,000 of directors’ fees has been hyped in the media. Her inability to match the organisational strength of the main parties will be her Achilles heel. The best she can hope for is second place.

The bookies have moved the market since close of nominations. Higgins has hardened from evens to 4/7. Find a mate in the pub, gym or workplace who fancies any other candidate. Have even tenner with them that the Labour veteran will win. His opponents have reduced their ambitions to solely defeating McGuinness.

Likelihood is that the coming weeks will reveal six losers. By default, rather than acclamation, Michael D emerges as clear-cut winner. For the FG powers, this is the least-worst option.