Michael D will be our next President by default rather than acclamation

THREE weeks today, we will elect Ireland’s ninth president.

Available evidence suggests the contest is over, bar campaigning. As with the general election, early, accurate prognosis provided certain predictability. Michael D Higgins is in an unassailable position. Even discovery of a love child or inappropriate representations are unlikely to derail his momentum. He can pick up 40% net transfers of eliminated candidates. His big negative — being 70 years old, with visible mobility problems — pales into insignificance compared to competitors’ drawbacks. Others are wilting under the spotlight.

Based on last February’s election, this was Fine Gael’s prize to lose. With 36% party support and no Fianna Fáil contender, their organisational strength and financial resources (circa €400k) should have ensured front-runner status. On 9 July their electoral college (principally parliamentary party), deemed party allegiance and loyalty was the primary quality required of their candidate. This arrogant sense of entitlement was misguided. Private opinion polls about potential of Pat Cox and Mairéad McGuinness were ignored. Gay Mitchell has decent chances of topping the poll as the first-ever directly elected Lord Mayor of Dublin — not the presidency.