Winners, losers and coalition capers: My predictions for Election 2011

JUST one full week of campaigning to go. Time to finalise predictions for the election outcome. Many undecided voters don’t finalise their preferences until the last few days. There is still time for variations and late surprises but the overall shape of the result is now apparent.

Fianna Fáil faces disaster. Fine Gael and Labour together will be the only possible durable coalition outcome. Sinn Féin and the Left Wing Alliance will achieve a cohesive cohort of TDs to provide a platform for future growth. It’s goodbye to the Greens.

The damage for Fianna Fáil starts with seats they have already conceded, ie TDs who are not standing and/or FF has contracted the ticket in that constituency. These are: MJ Nolan (Carlow Kilkenny) Rory O’Hanlon (Cavan Monaghan), Tony Killeen (Clare), Noel O’Flynn (Cork North Central) Batt O’Keeffe (Cork North West), Niall Blaney/Jim McDaid — one seat (Donegal North East), Bertie Ahern (Dublin Central), Noel Ahern (Dublin North West), Tom Kitt/ late Seamus Brennan — one seat (Dublin South), Sean Ardagh (Dublin South Central), Noel Treacy (Galway East), Brian Cowen (Laois/Offaly), John Cregan (Limerick), Beverley Flynn (Mayo), Mary Wallace (Meath East), Noel Dempsey (Meath West), Jimmy Devins (Sligo/North Leitrim), Martin Cullen (Waterford).