Kenny may be shunning debate, but it’s Martin who has nothing to say

WE don’t need a televised debate — or two, or three — to tell us who’s likely to make a better Taoiseach.

The ability to perform under lights, facing a barrage of questioning while trying not to let the side down, is only one aspect — and a small one at that — of what makes a political leader.

I’ve seen taoisigh and senior ministers at close quarters, negotiating with each other and others, trying to make sense of often complex arguments, trying to win battles while maintaining relationships. The good ones couldn’t do what they do on live television. I’ve known politicians who were afraid of nothing, but hated that moment when somebody else’s signature tune heralded another line of questions and interruptions. They hate it most because in the era of television, they’re judged on how they perform in an interview that might last no longer than eight or nine minutes — in a working day that might last 16 hours.

We’ve seen the main party leaders in action for years, and we can make our own judgments about them. And yet we expect them to stop being politicians, and start being circus performers, in order that we can make one final judgment. It’s a bit daft — especially when you consider that in most of the televised debates we’ve seen in Ireland, the winner of the debate went on to lose the election.

Yes, of course, communication is vital. But proper communication involves a sustained commitment to listening and understanding. Someone who’s trying to communicate well, for instance, almost never interrupts. But if you don’t interrupt in one of these televised debates, you’re wimp.

Having said all that, there is still one sense in which Enda Kenny is completely wrong to avoid a three-way debate with Vincent Browne in the chair. Browne makes it his mission to set out to beat up any politician who appears on his programme. There is little doubt that he would set out to ensure that all three of the party leaders who took part in the debate would stagger out of the studio when it was over, bloodied and bowed.

You can almost predict the questions, and the scorn with which each answer will be treated. As it is, only two of them will be able to share that moment some time tonight.

Browne being Browne, it’s unlikely that the experience would have been harder on Kenny than on anyone else. But there’s another sense in which Kenny and his team is probably right to refuse to participate in debates this early in the campaign.

In the last election, 2007, they made a fundamental strategic error in agreeing to a debate between Bertie Ahern and Kenny. It’s conventional wisdom now that Ahern won that debate convincingly. He didn’t — in fact he was deeply on edge at the beginning of the debate because he knew that questions would be asked about what was kindly referred to as his “complex” financial situation. But when the subject came up, Kenny (gentleman that he is) refused to go for the jugular, saying only that it would be a matter for the tribunal to deal with.

The moment passed, and Ahern relaxed. Later on in the debate, Kenny made a couple of slips on policy issues.

They weren’t a big deal — in fact I imagine nobody can now remember what they were. But that’s when the strategic mistake surfaced. For the first time ever in that election, the leaders’ debates were held a full week before polling day. And that meant Fianna Fáil had a whole week to go on the offensive. Kenny’s mistakes, whatever they were, were magnified a dozen times in several tub-thumping interviews, principally by Brian Cowen, over the following couple of days.

In the process, Cowen established the reputation that was shortly thereafter to win him the leadership of his party by universal acclaim, and with disastrous consequences. But more to the point, the strong position occupied by Fine Gael and Labour before the debate began to be frittered away and Ahern won an election that had seemed beyond his reach at the start of the campaign.

Both of the main opposition parties suffered as a result of the political and media barrage sustained by Kenny in that last week. I can still remember meeting people who had been going to vote Labour, but drifted away in the last week of the campaign because they had decided at the last minute that they couldn’t stomach the thought of Kenny as Taoiseach — and they equated a vote for Labour with a vote for Kenny because of the so-called Mullingar Accord.

None of that is to suggest that I believe Enda Kenny would make a bad Taoiseach. As it happens (and this would be no secret) I believe Eamon Gilmore would make a far better one, but I also believe Kenny would be a good deal better than some recent incumbents. Gilmore has vision and a deep-rooted sense of values. He’s honest and skilled. But Kenny has much of the same integrity, and (as those who tried to topple him last year discovered) an inner core of toughness that can serve this country well.

If Kenny makes a mistake on television, Fianna Fáil, and some of the media, will go at it hell for leather. Because he’s got a reputation as someone who has difficulty internalising economic theory and language, he’ll be watched like a hawk for any slip.

Why should anyone who has a commanding lead in the polls put himself in such a position? It’s crazy. Does anyone seriously believe that Micheál Martin would be wandering around offering to debate with anyone, anywhere, any time, any format, if Fianna Fáil was hovering around 35% in the polls? No, Martin has nothing to lose. His only task for the next couple of weeks is to try to shore up what remains of the Fianna Fáil core vote.

Incidentally, have you noticed how little Martin has to say? So far, every outing has been him trying to criticise what others are saying. I’ve yet to hear a single word from him about what Fianna Fáil intend to do next or why we should re-elect them to government. And mostly, what he has to say seems to belong in almost empty rooms, or in front of tiny groups of people. It’s yet another sign that for Fianna Fáil, this election is only about survival.

For that reason, if no other, Martin has nothing to lose by arguing for as many debates as he can get. Each debate will guarantee him an audience that a hundred Fianna Fáil gatherings couldn’t generate these days. And of course his only real audience is the Fianna Fáil party itself. He’s trying to persuade his own members and voters to bother turning out on polling day. Unlike Gilmore and Kenny, he’s not asking anyone to trust him with running the country.