Social consensus - An election is inevitable so why wait?

DESPITE the great optimism and relief that greeted Brian Cowen’s appointment as Taoiseach opinion poll after opinion poll has recorded a relentless collapse in his support.

This week’s Irish Sun survey continued that spiral towards oblivion and Mr Cowen’s 11% rating puts him in an almost unique category, at least in a country that likes to imagine itself a democracy.

Unfortunately his latest and weakest rating came on the very day that European Commissioner Olli Rehn backed the Government’s budgetary strategy and encouraged the political consensus pivotal to itsdelivery. By so doing he was underlining the depth of community-wide commitment and sacrifice needed to confront the failings that have brought us to the very edge of bankruptcy.

The contradiction inherent in Mr Rehn’s statement and Mr Cowen’s rating cannot be resolved. A leader who cannot secure support from more than one-in-ten simply does not have the moral, political or practical authority needed to continue in office let alone preside over budgetary measures so severe that they will depend on political and social consensus if they are to be embraced for the ultimate betterment of all.

Mr Cowen’s situation is exacerbated by four unavoidable bye-elections and the growing signs of stampede fever amongst his backbenchers and erstwhile reliable independents.

One bye-election will be held before the budget, two others are already overdue. Though it is not certain that Fianna Fáil will lose the seat vacated by Pat The Cope Gallagher any other result is difficult to imagine. This will be another blow to the possibility of political consensus suggested by our European friends.

The first Donegal poll should not be taken in isolation as the chronology of the next few months is not too hard to imagine.

Between now and the end of the month we will endure a chorus of claim and counter-claim in Donegal and then a bye-election. Closer to Christmas the budget will be introduced provoking anger and division that might even lead to street protests.

Then, as we’re trying to pay the Christmas credit card bills, we will face the prospect of one, two or three bye-elections and the inevitable pulling and dragging that will bring. And then, if everything goes as is predicted, we’ll eventually and finally, but not before time, get to the main event. We will have a general election that will decide who is to get the mandate to try to lead this country back to a place that might eventually become an equitable society and a viable economy.

All of this is predictable and though the timetable might be questioned most of the events are inevitable.

Would it not make some sort of sense, politically, democratically, psychologically and if only to try to rebuild our self-respect and reputation to short circuit that process?

Nevertheless things are not as cut and dried as they might seem. Fine Gael’s great weakness was exposed again this week when Enda Kenny stumbled through policy proposals to find incoherence. As long as he continues to do this he holds the door open for Fianna Fáil.

We need a new beginning and our politicians need a new mandate; there’s only one way we can get that and subsequently the political and social consensus Mr Rehn, logic and democracy recommend. It might even bring the kind of stability that would allow us, as Mr Rehn has intimated, renegotiate the scale and pace of spending cuts with Brussels.