My form card for the Euro elections — the likely winners and sure losers

FF’s results in previous Euro elections are poor. From 1979 to 2004 the average FF Euro vote over the 30-year period was 34.73%. Over the same period, the FF vote in general elections from 1981 to 2007 shows a significant differential. Their average over nine general elections was 43.05%

THE runners and riders for the Euro elections are at the starting gate. On June 5, we have to elect 13 Irish MEPs. Due to EU enlargement there is a reduction of one seat. Combined with the local elections, this contest will be the first outing for Brian Cowen as Taoiseach. Voters will pass judgment on the Government. Enda Kenny’s leadership of Fine Gael can either be cemented or undermined. Eamon Gilmore faces his first poll as Labour leader. Sinn Féin is seeking to recover the ground lost in the 2007 election. Libertas, the new kids on the block, are an unknown prospect.

Opinion polls have detected a significant shift in public opinion. FF obtained 41.6% of the vote in the last general election, whereas polls have them down to 23%-28% now. FG got 27.3% in 2007, and is up to 30%-35%. Labour had a disappointing 10.1% last time, but now commands 16%-24%. Sinn Féin, with 6.9%, and the Greens, at 4.7% previously, have a current range of 5%-9%.