Let’s face it, our economy may be too weak to go it alone in Europe

THE EU Council has given its response to the Irish no vote in last June’s referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. We have been so engrossed in the Irish perspective of how our negative vote should be interpreted that we have not stopped to listen.

The Irish electorate must absorb what the rest of Europe, through their governments and prime ministers, have concluded.

The polite, diplomatic deference shown for our democratic process has been maintained. Beneath this velvet glove is concealed a solid fist. While they respect our sovereignty and right to self-determination, this has not extended to allowing one of the smallest and most peripheral states to dictate to the rest of Europe how EU procedures should be reformed.

They are not prepared to reopen the ratification process of the treaty within their own respective states. They are unwilling to revisit their parliaments or electorates with an additional protocol — let alone alter the treaty. Some may argue that our Government didn’t try hard enough. Whether this is true or not, it is wholly irrelevant because we now have to face the collective reality of “no renegotiation”.

The 2009 Lisbon II vote will be a key moment of decision for the Irish people. It places the country at a crossroads, politically and economically. We can exercise the sovereign right to take a further step in lessening our commitment to Europe.

The context and content of the questions will be as important as the answer.

Libertas and Sinn Féin’s questions are:

* Do you want to give more power to unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats in Europe?

* Have you read/do you understand the full complexity of the legal text of the Lisbon Treaty document?

* Are you fearful, given the enlargement of the EU, that Ireland will have less influence and control over its own affairs in the future?

* Are you disgruntled with the Government?

* Do you trust your politicians?

The yes side, on the other hand, would ask:

* Can Ireland continue to attract direct foreign investment if it is a less than committed member of the EU?

* Given that our currency is the euro and principal export markets are in the EU, can Ireland pursue a strategy of economic development beyond Europe?

* Have the last three decades of Irish EU membership enhanced our infrastructure, employment and social conditions?”

The first set of questions provoke negative responses, the second positive replies. If the first set form the agenda — as they did first time around — a repeat defeat could be on the cards. Our choice next time will be all about Ireland’s future relationship with the EU.

I am deeply fearful that another rejection would result in the rest of Europe becoming detached from us — resulting in medium term dissociation and disconnection. The experience of Iceland and its currency — the kroner — has been horrific in recent months. They are isolated and vulnerable, a peripheral island and people without allies, assistance or protection.

Our self-confidence in our indestructibility led us to miss the possibility that a no vote could put us in a similar position. But it could.

I am unaware of any serving or former minister or civil servant, with direct EU experience, who has argued for a no vote. Those who have directly negotiated on behalf of this country and understand the practicalities of our negotiating position all are positive about the treaty. I reckon only six of our 166 TDs advocated a no vote.

Disillusionment with the Irish political establishment is understandable, maybe even justified, but this does not mean they are always wrong.

Sinn Féin and smaller socialist parties have a record of opposition to the EEC and EU. Protectionism, nationalism and protest politics have informed their views. What has fuelled the enthusiasm of their no campaign, however, has been the political opportunity to get 50% media space in a context where otherwise they are minor players.

Declan Ganley cannot be complacently dismissed a second time. I recently read of Ganley’s own story and business career. His life journey and business success are impressive. He bemoans the growing paralysis of the Irish body politic and the need to eliminate what he sees as the democratic deficit within the EU.

I respect many of his views about entrepreneurship, risk-taking and innovation. Libertas is waging a pan-European battle for hearts and minds within 27 member states. The best way to fight for their vision of Europe is to contest the MEP elections.

Ireland is the meat in the sandwich in this battle. It reminds me of cities hosting international soccer competitions with rival sets of hooligan fans. The innocent victims are the locals. Ireland, because we are the last to ratify the treaty, is in a difficult position. Both battalions are shooting across our bows.

A constant characteristic in the vox pops of no voters was a “whatever you’re having yourself” disenchantment. If you were fed up due to the smoking ban, drink driving rules, economic recession, Dustin’s Eurovision defeat, fishing and farming woes, taxation system, health cuts or tribunal revelations — you found the referendum a suitable repository for your angst.

The other chant was “if you don’t know, vote no.”

Neither rationale is rational. Referenda are not the appropriate locus for the expression of generalised discontent, nor are they the correct procedure to determine complex issues. In fact, repeat referenda bolster the case for parliamentary decision-making.

A NUMBER of recent referendum campaigns have been a shambles. The Referendum Commission has added to rather than allayed confusion. The absence of party political broadcasts seems unfair. The unwritten rule of equal broadcast air time is nonsensical.

I am not surprised they quietly dropped the idea of a constitutional referendum on children’s rights. Unaccountable, unelected Supreme Court judges have landed us with this dilemma. Where is the political courage to call for the primary role of the Dáil to legislate?

Occasionally I have been in highly stressful situations. One of my self-defence mechanisms is to focus on problems and solutions that are within my control and to downplay those factors beyond my control. Right now, as a nation, we face enormous difficulties. Resolving global recession, climate change, world hunger and international terrorism are outside of our reach. Protecting our vital national economic interest in Europe, on the other hand, is within our grasp in 2009.

I am certain that Ireland should be at the heart of EU decision-making. I am convinced we need the positive support of Brussels bureaucracy. I fear our economy is too fragile for us to abandon the EU political project. If we ignore the downside of a second no vote, EU leaders will proceed without us.

Good luck in politics or life happens when preparation meets opportunity. The yes side didn’t do enough groundwork heretofore. My current odds are: Yes 5/6 and No 5/6 (a genuine 50/50 perspective on an uncertain outcome). I hope those wearing the green jersey with the circle of stars on it emerge as the winners.