A close-run race with no outright winner in sight

THE flux of this election campaign has been unprecedented.

What the opinion polls tell us — and not with any great accuracy — is not to write anyone off. Not Fianna Fáil when it’s down at 34%. Not Fine Gael or Labour when they’ve ebbed from a high tide of 31% and 13% to a less impressive 28% and 10%. Not the Greens, who dipped. Not Sinn Féin, despite Gerry Adams’s loose grasp of southern economics. Not even the PDs. Especially not the PDs. Remember last time.

With just 24 hours of a 24-day election campaign to go, the country is still on an uncertain course. Nobody can call it with any certainty. To be sure, the momentum has trended towards FF for the past week — but the main opposition parties are adamant the last poll wasn’t truly reflective of the public mood.

The thematic battleground of the election wasn’t as complicated and layered as we thought. For the first fortnight, it was dominated by the questions surrounding Bertie Ahern’s finances. That went to his credibility. Following his statement, Brian Cowen pumped up the volume with an attack on Fine Gael’s contract “con job” last Monday week. But it didn’t sustain. FF was running the same campaign as it had in 2002 — but everything it turned its hands to seemed to spontaneously combust before its eyes.

In contrast, both Fine Gael and Labour were running clever campaigns. FG concentrated on Enda Kenny whistle-stopping his way through the country. Labour relied on clever targeted messages, using Pat Rabbitte’s force of character to drive the message home in a punchy and quip-laden manner.

The slow turn started for Mr Ahern in Westminster with a superb speech and the build-up to the TV debate on Thursday. What distinguished the 2007 showdown from the 2002 version was it happened much earlierand the contest was more finely poised.

It was to prove to be a critical encounter. If the media view was that Mr Ahern shaded it, it seems the public didn’t share it, plumping much more for the FF leader. Whether they were right or not, he had succeeded in getting some of his assertions out there — on the veracity of FG’s claims on 2,000 extra gardaí; his claim that its tax policies favoured the top 3% of earners; and his jibes about its plans for 2,300 more beds. He planted a seed of doubt that went to the issue of Mr Kenny’s competence and wherewithal.

FF followed by using the basketball ploy of a full-court press, hammering home the points. It was only when the startling results of the last opinion poll appeared on Monday that the opposition came out fighting, screaming that the FF claims on tax were “lies”. It descended into a slanging match between Mr Cowen and Mr Rabbitte on Questions and Answers.

Yesterday was the last real day of engagement before today’s broadcast moratorium. But the day was dominated by an amazing FF gaffe. After pounding away at the opposition for three days, FF was knocked out by a self-inflicted haymaker. On Monday night, Mr Cowen had finally ponied up a figure for the controversial collocation project — €70 million a year for seven years he said.

But the three ministers who fronted the FF conference yesterday were not fully briefed. Mary Hanafin said it would cost €40m until 2011. When asked to clarify how the figures differed from Cowen’s they were flummoxed. Waffle followed, then a piece of paper was hastily handed up. And then as the carefully constructed spin of the previous three days began to unspin alarmingly, Mr Cowen’s adviser, Colin Hunt, had to step in from the wings to explain it.

It was embarrassing. The word hubris came to mind.

On Thursday night, on TV, Mr Ahern had lambasted Jim O’Keeffe for not having the right figures to hand for crime rates. And here was Mr Ahern admitting that his own finance minister “just said the wrong figure” the previous night.

Cue, mortal embarrassment.

Other messages signalled what is at stake. Labour rephrased the PD slogan to proclaim “Five More Years: No Thanks”.

Until its tactic became unstuck, FF continued on its ‘dismantling’ of Mr Kenny’s Contract. Fine Gael held back its conference.

Having seen what happened on collocation, the party predictably excoriated FF in revenge for its own roasting.

The attacks on FF were ferocious. All the main opposition parties — and the PDs — raised the spectre of the Shinners making FF winners by propping up a minority government. FF denied this. Categorically.

The bad-tempered and divisive exchanges show just how close this race is.