If you want to change things this is the only chance you’ll get for a while

WE HAVE never been more powerful than we are right now. We, the people. We hold the balance of power. Each and every one of us individually — and more in this election than at any time in the recent past.

We the people are so critical to the outcome that each of us individually has as much power, right now, as an independent TD or a party leader.

Why is that? Usually, we know the result of an election halfway through the campaign when the trends become largely irreversible. In this election, the trends have changed a few times, to the point where nobody can safely predict any outcome.

At first it looked as if the present Government was simply unbeatable. “Low tax: us. High tax: them.” That was going to be their message, played again and again throughout the campaign. Then Pat Rabbitte, in a brilliant strategic move, announced that Labour in government would reduce the standard tax rate and the high tax/low tax argument disappeared.

Little by little after that, a new debate emerged — quality of life v. state of the economy. And the present Government hasn’t looked as if it could win either side of that argument. Charges of incompetence and waste have been made against the Government, and they stuck. Its apparent lack of concern over all the quality of life issues — the queues in hospitals, fear in the neighbourhoods, lack of decent educational choices and chances — has damaged them even more.

Over the space of a couple of months, the Government has gone from seeming to be unbeatable to seeming to be unelectable. The government parties have run crisis-driven, stumbling, angry and negative campaigns. Pat Rabbitte and Enda Kenny have been injecting real energy and enthusiasm into their campaigns all around the country, developing a strong and positive vision and looking more and more like a formidable team. But still, clearly, we the people are uncertain. We want change, but we’re anxious about change. We want to replace this Government with better, but we want to be sure it really is better. We want some excitement, but we also want stability — we’ve become used to the idea that governments last for five years, and we don’t want any messing around. We want a lot more accountability, but we also want deals done when that’s necessary. The opinion polls, of course, have reflected all this. First they showed the Government well ahead. Then they showed that lead narrowing until the opposition alliance moved into the lead. And now they’re reflecting our uncertainty, our doubt as we hover at the door of the polling station by showing Government and opposition running neck and neck.

Do you know what that closeness, that feeling of everything being too close to call, does? It places a huge amount of power in our hands. We, the people, we’re the ones who decide where every single seat in Dáil Eireann can go. Our first preferences will be tallied before they’re counted, and when they’re counted some impression will be gained of what our intentions are.

But in an election like this, our second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth preferences will all matter. Every time we mark the ballot paper next Thursday, we can do it in the knowledge that as each preference is examined and counted, the final shape of the Dáil, and the likely composition of the next government, will change.

If the polls are right, this election is so tight that it might take no more than a couple of hundred of us citizens, judiciously spread over the constituencies, to re-elect the same old Government or usher in a brand new one. Now that’s power!

All through Friday next, and probably Saturday and Sunday too, the radio and television will be talking about us. Us, the people. We don’t get a lot of coverage as a rule, but by the end of this week we’ll be the only news story that matters.

What did the people decide on Thursday? What message are they sending? Who do the people want in, or out? And here’s a secret. As long as we make our message clear enough, we’ll be listened to. We do have to bear in mind that if we send out confusing messages, we won’t necessarily get the outcome we want. And I’m not just talking about government formation here. This is our chance to shape the next five years — their direction, underlying values and character. We know we’re never going to get everything we want. But we also know the choices we make now can ensure that our real anxieties and concerns are shared by the next government.

So because we’re so powerful right now, we need to be clear about our choices. Some of them are simple enough, I think, but if we think of those choices in terms of issues rather than personality, they become even clearer. Maybe not as simple as the reason one of my colleagues gave me the other day to explain why she was voting for change — “because the only nice thing about a shower is the chance to see a rainbow afterwards” — but simple enough.

For instance, do we want creeping privatisation of our health service that we the people have built up over so many years? Or do we want it restored to the point where it can treat people with dignity and respect? Do we think, like the Government, that our hospitals have enough beds, despite the endless queues?

DO WE want each and every one of our kids to be a statistic when it comes to defining the pupil-teacher ratio? Or do we want a guarantee that they will be taught in decent, purpose-built surroundings by teachers who aren’t overburdened by the numbers they have to cope with?

Do we want gardaí on the street in the kinds of numbers that will really make a difference. Or are we happy to be assured, despite the evidence of our own eyes, that every measure of crime is under control? Do we believe that people who care for others in the home, people with a disability, people who are frail and old already have the full measure of citizenship to which they’re entitled? What does Leas Cross tell us — or have we forgotten it already?

Do we ever see our kids getting a chance to own a home of their own? Or must they always wait, while the whole thrust of public policy seems to be aimed at making a few more millionaires? Are we happy with the level of accountability we’ve been getting? Or do we need a government that’s more in touch?

When we look at our present Government, do we know the answer to the question I hear all over the place — if they’re as out of touch as this after 10 years, what are they going to be like after 15? It’s our choice. And we’ll have nobody to blame but ourselves if we make the wrong one. Because now, more than ever, we’re the ones with the power to decide the future.