You can count on volatile electorate

EAMON de VALERA once pronounced, with a refreshing lack of modesty, that when he wanted to find out the views of the Irish people he only had to look into his own heart.

Nowadays politicians let opinion polls do the job for them.

You often hear politicians spouting out stuff about being close to the people and being in touch with the grassroots. But, in fact, there's often a contrary factor among the great unwashed that goes against the grain and against all consensus.

I bumped into one of the leading personalities in the South euro constituency in a Dublin hotel this week and we began shooting the breeze about the South constituency.

I asked him would Kathy Sinnott to employ a Bertieism upset the FF apple tart? Nah, he said. Not a hope. She came too late into the race. She doesn't have an adequate team on the ground. The electoral appeal that nearly got her elected in Cork South Central in 2002 just won't translate when it comes to this bigger, more complex arena.

There you go. For at election time, when politicians look into their own hearts they see only one thing: fear.

Unless the signs are nakedly and cruelly unavoidable politicians aren't all that wise to their fate. Brian Crowley doesn't want to cede any territory to Gerry Collins because he's afraid that he'll become another Mary O'Rourke.

Avril Doyle doesn't really know if Mairead McGuinness is really snapping at her heels? Does Eoin Ryan have to watch his back to guard against the Boy Roy making him into yet another clown?

And of all the elections, the Europeans are most problematic because people tend to vote unpredictably. A lot of people (and may we be the first to say that that included ourselves) were astounded at the really strong showing by Ms Sinnott, the Simon surge, and the poor showing of Labour's Brendan Ryan.

But perhaps we shouldn't be surprised. European elections aren't dominated by the core issues that determine changes of Government in Ireland.

People tend to see this vote as the electoral equivalent of disposable income, to be cast in favour of issues like the environment (the Greens) or in favour of a personality (everybody else, including Mary Lou). Elsewhere on this page you will see how parties have thrown out all pretences and have marketed their candidates like commodities.

But the net point is that the Euros tend to throw up slightly anachronistic results that buck the orthodox political alignment.

The assumption that Pat Cox's departure would leave two FF and one FG seat in the South was a lazy and complacent one. Sinnott fits the profile of the classic independent Euro candidate, a kind of supra-political figure who is instantly recognisable, is associated with a single cause, and has no major links with any political party.

In fact for two decades, the South constituency has had an independent MEP in TJ Maher, and then Mr Cox. Though the constituency has been whittled down over the years from five seats to three, there is arguably an independent seat remaining.

Gerry Collins, for one, will quibble with that view. Mr Crowley is using the same argument that Micheál Martin used in Cork South Central in 2002 and which Bertie Ahern has used ad infinitum sure, I can't help being such a popular fellow.

If they care to look at the West Belfast constituency in the Northern Assembly elections, Fianna Fáil would learn a salutary lesson about party disciplines.

Mr Adams almost pulled off a clean sweep of all six seats by reducing his first preferences. FF might not have that military rigour but if the divide between Mr Crowley and Mr Collins isn't bridged, the party is sure to lose.

The most intriguing finding from the poll related to the citizenship referendum. While the question didn't ask the respondents directly if they would support the amendment, the tiny gap in opinion runs counter to all the orthodoxy that this referendum would pass at a canter.

It's been a consistent pattern in Irish referenda that considerable gaps have been reduced to hairline cracks in the last weeks of the campaign. The closeness at this stage may make for a major upset nasty but Nice, as it were.