The general election starts here as parties jostle for pole position

IT’S game on, as they say. The next election starts now.

The pundits will spend days and maybe weeks sifting through the entrails of the local and European elections, but one thing has emerged with total clarity: an alternative government is possible.

It won't be easy to put together there are large issues of personality, policy and leadership to work out. But a new democratic partnership is there to be made. Throughout the euro and local election campaign one message came through more than any other, and it was crystal clear. The people want a change, and they want it badly.

Even Fianna Fáil sources have tacitly admitted this in their comments about the results although of course they weren't admitting that it was them the people wanted changed.

So two processes are starting right now: one on the Government side and one among opposition parties.

On the Government side, everyone's waiting for Bertie. Will he remind himself of the old but usually true dictum that all political careers are doomed to end in failure, and go for the golden parachute of a senior EU commissionership?

Up to the weekend I would have said that the presidency was his for the asking, because his prime ministerial colleagues have reason to be grateful for the progress made towards completion of a new treaty. The results across Europe have weakened that prospect, because they have returned substantial numbers of anti-treaty MEPs in a number of European states. More to the point, they have sent the message that there is no guarantee that any treaty concluded now will be ratified across Europe, no matter what's in it.

On that basis, this coming weekend's European summit may well come to the conclusion that all of Bertie's negotiating magic has produced a situation they don't actually want, or at least are not ready for. It would be ironic indeed if Bertie was able to tell his colleagues that he had delivered but they had to say thanks but no thanks.

Guilt might lead in that situation to them offering Bertie the top job. It seems more likely now, though, that they will look for a president of the European Commission who is a bit less associated with treaty-building, and a bit more involved with selling the message of Europe as an entity. Someone who is aware of the day-to-day concerns of people, someone more capable of inspiring a sense of vision about the future. Bertie's backroom skills may not represent the perfect CV for that job, and he may discover that a senior vice-presidency is the best on offer.

Should he take an offer like that? Whether he should or shouldn't, it's unlikely that he will and knowing the way the ground is shifting, he will probably rule himself out before anything is offered. Anything other than the presidency would be seen as if Bertie was trying to slip out the back door, and I don't think the attractions of Europe are enough to allow him to say yes to such an image.

So his next alternative is to do a reshuffle at home, in the hope of freshening up his clapped-out cabinet.

But it needs to be major. If, after the reshuffle, only a couple of deck-chairs have been moved about the deck, and all the key players are still in place (especially Charlie McCreevy and Michael McDowell), the iceberg will loom ever larger. Unless he can present not just new faces, but an entirely new vision, this Government is doomed.

Don't forget one thing. There is no legal need for an election before 2007, so the Government has time to get its act together. But for some time now this Government has been showing classic signs of arrogance.

The first mark of arrogance is an inability to learn from mistakes, and a government that can't learn from its mistakes becomes more and more accident prone and defensive. In the short term, it can quickly become unstable, with even its loyal adherents beginning to long for an early election to end the misery. In the longer term, the deadly combination of arrogance and incompetence can render a government completely unelectable.

And all the more so because the opposition will be busier than ever from this moment on.

LONG before they sit down with each other, however, each party in opposition will have a long hard look at what the local elections mean for them individually. Morale is important, and the fact that all the main opposition parties made gains will be very good for them. But the key thing is people.

Every one of the Dáil constituencies will be examined now. Who has emerged as a potential Dáil candidate, or as a running-mate for a sitting TD? Who looks stronger as a result of the local elections? Who looks more vulnerable?

Some people will be placed and groomed now, and others will be targeted. Within months, the shape of the battle in each Dáil constituency will be plain to see. As indeed will be the potential for co-operation between the opposition parties, or for friendly rivalry.

But the commentators shouldn't rush to any conclusions.

Over the next six months, the task for each of the main opposition parties is to select standard-bearers for the general election; sharpen the opposition act in the Dáil to make life as uncomfortable as possible for the Government; and stake out credible and coherent policy positions on which to negotiate an agreed package that is, if a pre-election pact is considered desirable.

Some of that work will be quiet, and some of it will be visible.

But each of the main opposition parties will want to position themselves first and foremost. They owe it to their membership, and even more to their constituents, to present the strongest, boldest front they can. The result will be some tension between the opposition parties as the sorting-out goes on. But the conclusion will be to present the electorate with a crystal-clear choice as they decided who they want to govern them after the next election.

And what of Sinn Féin in all of this? Are they in the reckoning or out of it in terms of forming the next government? Isn't that up to them? In a post-IRA Ireland, a democratic Sinn Féin can probably achieve government if it wants to. But a post-IRA Ireland is in their gift and nobody else's.

If, in the aftermath of Sinn Féin's success at local and European level (a radically different thing from achieving success in a general election) the IRA decides to disarm and/or disband, then I reckon all sorts of historic compromises could be possible.

They could choose to support Fianna Fáil after the next election and FF will probably need them. But if they're serious about "building a nation of equals" they will want to join the task of getting rid of this rotten Government instead. A fresh start for republicanism, one that puts the ballot box in both hands rather than one, could be the key not only to a post-IRA Ireland, but to a whole new politics for all of us.