Bertie has shown his two best hands, but it’s all to play for yet

THIS time last year was politically dramatic. In mid-June there were local and European elections in which the hammering taken by Fianna Fáil in particular left many backbenchers reeling.

They fretted as they saw new Fine Gael faces emerge with strong mandates in local electoral areas and as they watched Sinn Féin improve dramatically in some parts of the country, especially Dublin city.

There were private and some public calls from FF backbenches for the Taoiseach to take urgent steps to address the situation. It quickly began to look as if their message, and indeed the electorate's message, was being heeded.

It is also a year since a late night, mid-week announcement that Charlie McCreevy would be Ireland's new EU commissioner. Immediately people were asking whether he jumped or was pushed. Interestingly, this question was addressed to McCreevy himself by Miriam O'Callaghan last Saturday night. He was his usual entertaining and skilful self and carefully side-stepped the issue saying that going to Brussels was of his own choosing. He may be correct; one of Bertie Ahern's skills is to persuade people that the course of action he wants them to take is actually in their best interest.

The most interesting analysis of the McCreevy episode I have heard came from actor and director Alan Stanford who, during a radio discussion, argued that McCreevy had to move from Finance not because he was pushed or because he jumped but because he fell. Support for him and his modus operandi ebbed away both within the FF parliamentary party and among the electorate.

The key merit in moving McCreevy from the cabinet was not just that it marked a shift, at least in presentational terms, in government fiscal and economic policy but it also opened up the possibility of a genuinely radical cabinet reshuffle.

In late September, the Taoiseach implemented what were in his terms some dramatic ministerial changes, including three promotions. The latter have been relatively successful. Mary Hanafin is solid and quietly reforming in Education, while Dick Roche is active and informed in Environment.

Willie O'Dea, in addition to maximising the limited profile which can be got out of Defence, short of declaring war, has also done much heavy lifting in presenting the Government's wider case. The move of Cowen to Finance is also widely recognised as a success.

The second leg of Bertie Ahern's skilful recovery strategy could be called the "Inchydoney repositioning". The cumulative effect of the parliamentary party's think-in in the West Cork resort, and the series of interviews Ahern gave to mark the 10th anniversary of his leadership in which he reiterated his commitment to socialism with a small 's', marked a softening of the Government's image and a more equitable refocusing of resources and policies. The cuts in the community employment scheme were reversed and the new approach culminated in the left-of-centre budget last December, particularly its substantial package for disabilities and special needs programmes.

The early winter also saw an improvement in the Government's fortunes in the polls. There was a very positive reaction to the budget and even a prospect of a peace deal in the North which would include both SF and the DUP. The Government was also helped by a continuing lacklustre parliamentary performance from the opposition.

However, in mid-December things began to go wrong again. Progress in the North was not to be and, in fact, matters degenerated with the Northern Bank robbery, the McCartney murder and associated recriminations.

An improved opposition performance coincided with a series of controversies which have eroded this Government's reputation for competence including nursing home charges, ongoing difficulties with the health services generally, delays in delivering infrastructure projects, and indecision on airports and transport policy.

The Government has been unlucky in that some of the headlines around major projects have not been of their own making. Instead, they have arisen from the cut-and-thrust that can often accompany bitter litigation between the parties involved in substantial infrastructural projects. It may well be that when such litigation or investigations have run their course, some of the most damaging allegations will prove to be unfounded.

EVEN so, the Government still suffers the consequences in the interim. Stories relating to cost over-runs on projects are likely to continue to attract significant attention particularly given Michael Noonan's very effective chairmanship of the Public Accounts Committees. That committee is currently clearing a backlog of reports on earlier years and projects which, quite understandably, are getting attention when they are published.

The Government's difficulties are compounded by the fact that this appearance of incompetence in the delivery of public services is occurring at a time when the economy is doing so well.

Many ministers and strategists had hoped that once the public had used the occasion of the local elections to vent their annoyance, and even anger, at cutbacks and adjustments in the 2002-2004 period, the electorate would then turn around and thank the Government for sound economic management.

The ESRI and others have recently confirmed that, bar some unforeseen shock, the good times have returned for the economy generally, and its buoyancy will continue to 2007 and beyond. In theory therefore, the economic environment, boosted even further by the release of SSIA funds, should lead to a public mood which would be well disposed to re-electing the Government that brought them all this.

However, conventional wisdom is now being turned on its head. All the indications are that the electorate is more inclined towards taking economic good times for granted. Far from thanking the Government, the public will be measuring their competence not on the macro issues that generated the boom but on the more day-to-day issues touching on delivery of public services and quality of life.

In addition, the middle-class swing vote electorate, with their own comfort secured, will be demanding a more equal distribution of wealth and economic resources. The next few years will see an increasing concentration on the nature of our society rather than the success of our economy.

The problem for the Government then, and Bertie Ahern in particular, is that having played his two best hands a cabinet reshuffle and a policy repositioning he still finds himself and his Government floundering on poll ratings similar to those experienced before the June '04 elections.

There is no reason to believe that the next election will be held any earlier than May 2007. Even in the unlikely scenario of a terminal breakdown between the two government parties, there are enough options among the 'gene pool' independents to keep Bertie in government until his preferred election date.

Two years is an eternity in political life and anything can happen in that time. The ground is laid out for both Government and opposition, and the actions of the latter, particularly FG and Labour, will also impact on the Government's fortunes but that's a matter for another day.