Ireland right to aim for the stars as Brexit drags

Last week my work took me to the very rural part of the southern regions of the Netherlands, close to the German border.

I met a number of people engaged in different lines of business, ranging from the equine industry to agriculture, and much more besides.

When I brought up the subject of Brexit in order to seek to gauge the Dutch attitude towards it, it was met with a shrug of the shoulders and a generally high level of apathy and lack of any real interest.

The Dutch are already making preparations for increased customs activity once the UK leaves the EU in anticipation of the event.

A hard Brexit will have significant implications for the Dutch agriculture, horticulture and flower exporting sectors, given how much trade these sectors do with the UK.

However, the Dutch seem to be taking a very pragmatic approach and the attitude seems to be ‘what will be, will be’. One commented that the British will be the British.

This level of apathy is very understandable given how farcical the whole debacle is becoming. The reality is that little progress has been made in the UK regarding the fairly imminent exit from the EU.

One certainly gets the strong impression that the country is still fighting the referendum campaign rather than drawing up a coherent exit plan.

We have seen a number of supposedly key speeches being delivered by senior British politicians in recent weeks, but we are still no clearer as to what might unfold.

Boris Johnson wants the UK to leave both the single market and the customs union in order to allow Britain strike its own trade deals and set its own standards.

He is pushing a ‘Liberal Brexit’, whatever that means — sovereignty for the leavers and liberal values for the ‘remainers’. He wants to restore the UK’s position as an independent free trading nation. However, leaving a trading block of 500 million people in order to forge new trade deals does not make sense.

Under the EU regime that the UK believes has hampered its development so much, Germany has managed to export 150% more than the UK to India and 250% more than the UK to South Africa — both countries which have close historical relationships with the UK.

To suggest that the EU restricts flexibility through rules and regulations just does not stack up. It has not impeded Germany, nor indeed, has it impeded Ireland. David Davis does not want a race to the bottom. If he really doesn’t, then he is certainly doing his best to hide it.

The reality is that the UK’s biggest trade relationship is with the EU, which accounts for 43% of UK exports and 54% of imports of goods and services.

The US accounts for just 18% of UK exports. Walking away from this sort of economic relationship does not make a lot of economic sense, but then again sense has hardly been in ample supply since June 23, 2016.

The word is now that the British prime minister is talking about “managed divergence”. The suggestion is that the UK/EU trading relationship would be broken into three baskets.

Complete alignment would describe a situation where the UK would follow EU rules and regulation.

The second basket would be described as ‘managed mutual recognition’, meaning that each side would agree on common objectives, but each would choose its own rules.

The third basket is where the UK would abandon EU regulations and do whatever it wants.

The theory is that different types of trade would fit into one of the three baskets.

This concept of ‘managed divergence’ would bring the whole process to an elevated level of insanity. The notion that the EU would agree to such an arrangement is about as likely as Donald Trump introducing gun controls.

From Ireland’s perspective, the future is still fraught with deep uncertainty. There is not a lot we can do about this, other than making sure that our economy is as strong as possible in the longer run.

In that context, Ireland 2040 should be welcomed by anybody who cares about the long-term future of the country.

Opposition politicians and other begrudgers clearly do not. If the plan was to be delivered in full by 2040, Ireland would certainly be in a much better place than it is today.

It is good to have a plan and aim for the stars.