Electing our candidate in Galway 'would be the ultimate two fingers to the far right', Labour says
Labour's Helen Ogbu has been targeted online, receiving a stream of abuse, and in recent days has had one of her election posters vandalised with the 'N' word spraypainted across it. Photo: Leah Farrell/© RollingNews.ie
Could this be the election that delivers the country's first black female TD in the most unlikely of constituencies?
"It would be the ultimate two fingers to the far right," was how one Labour party politician put it this week.
Read More
Another described the possibility as a "phenomenal outcome" in Galway West, a constituency that was the site of one of the first major protests against direct provision back in 2019. Almost 2,000 people came out in Oughterard amid rumours that a local hotel was to be converted into accommodation for those seeking asylum.
And yet many within the Labour party, and indeed from other parties, are talking up Helen Ogbu's chances in next week's by-election.
Ogbu fled Nigeria in 2006, seeking asylum here when her husband, Sunny Orji-Ogbu, started receiving death threats for his political activity. He was murdered in 2010.
As her own by-election campaign has ramped up, Ogbu has been targeted online, receiving a stream of abuse, and in recent days has had one of her election posters vandalised with the 'N' word spraypainted across it.
But momentum has been building for her. Labour leader Ivana Bacik has been telling members for the last four to five weeks that Ogbu has the potential to do it.
In yet another twist that highlights some of the divisions that have erupted across communities in recent years, many predict that she could enter the final count against Noel Thomas, a man who previously said that Ireland shouldn't continue to receive asylum seekers.
With 17 candidates of varying degrees of public profile and political pedigree in the race, transfers will be key and a re-count is not beyond the realms of possibility. Almost all observers believe the final count will be fought out between the strongest candidate on the left and the lead candidate on the right.
To get herself into that last count, Ogbu will have to stay ahead of other left-leaning candidates including Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich of the Social Democrats and to a lesser extent Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan.
On the right, former junior minister Sean Kyne has been polling well. However, he will have to beat off Thomas the Independent Ireland candidate.
Thomas came to national prominence back in 2023 when, as a Fianna Fáil councillor, he spoke out following a blaze at the Ross Lake House Hotel earmarked for international protection applicants.
Thomas, who subsequently resigned from Micheál Martin's party, said placing asylum seekers in hotels was "causing a lot of upset in a lot of communities," adding: "We really have to start realising that the inn is full.”
On the other side of the country in Dublin Central another battle is being fought to claim the seat vacated by long-serving Fine Gael politician Paschal Donohoe who has taken up a position at the world bank.
There is significant hype around Daniel Ennis, whose win would mark another chapter in the growth of the Social Democrats as it would see him join Gary Gannon as the second sitting party TD in the constituency.
If Ennis does succeed, Holly Cairns, who has been putting in a strong effort to get out on the doors as much as possible with her candidate, would for the first time have to roll out a tight vote management strategy to retain both seats in the next general election.
But with 14 in the race, transfers will be essential and the candidate on the left who can cling on longest in the initial counts could be the one who creeps up as eliminations progress.
Ennis and Sinn Féin candidate Janice Boylan are the most high-profile candidates on the left, but many who have been out canvassing in the area now see the Green Party councillor Janet Horner as a dark horse.
"Janet's name is coming up more and more on the doors," one person from another party said.
The Green Party is again utilising the strategy deployed in the 2019 by-election in Dublin Fingal which helped get Joe O'Brien elected.
Back then, canvassers reminded constituents that they already had a Labour TD in their area, so didn't need another in Duncan Smith and instead should lend their left-leaning vote to the Green Party.
This time around, they are telling those living in Dublin Central that a second Social Democrats TD is surplus to requirements.
"They have a story to tell. If I am a voter on the left they will resonate with me," said one political source.
Finally, Gerard 'the Monk' Hutch is a wildcard who must be added to the mix. He gained much attention during the last general election but also proved he has significant backing in the area, garnering 3,000 first preference votes.
- Elaine Loughlin is political editor for the Irish Examiner
It is one of the most asked questions by people in political circles these days, with everyone looking for an insight, a read, an angle.
Some are asking out of morbid curiosity, just glad it's not them running, while others are wondering on a party level, how is their guy/girl doing?
The truth is that with little polling and the general low interest in by-elections like these, it is difficult to read where the votes might end up in the absence of a clear front-runner.
For example in Galway West, Sinn Féin's Mairead Farrell topped the poll 18 months ago with 13.5% of the vote, but the party's candidate Mark Lohan was polling around half of that on 7% in a TG4/Irish Times poll last week.
The party argues that its own polling paints a better picture and that Mr Lohan is in a better position than the poll, which came with a 4% margin of error, suggests.
On the flipside, Fine Gael was massively buoyed by the poll which suggested its candidate senator Sean Kyne was in a fight for the seat with Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas. Party sources say the poll energised volunteers and the campaign as a whole.
Mr Kyne a former junior minister, leads the poll on 17% of first preferences, followed by Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas on 16% and Labour councillor Helen Ogbu on 12%. A constituency source said they expect those three and the Social Democrats Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich to be the final four on the day.
In Dublin Central, Thursday's poll showed that it may be a fight on the left between Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan and Social Democrat Daniel Ennis.
While Ms Boylan leads on first preferences, Mr Ennis leads on seconds with 15% of people saying that their number 2 choice will go to him. It is that ability to draw transfers from everyone from Gerry Hutch who is polling at 14% to Labour's Ruth O'Dea who is on 6% that could put the Social Democrat on course to join Gary Gannon as a TD for the area.
However, much will depend on whether there is an underrepresentation of Mr Hutch's vote and how large that might end up being. With just days to go, both constituencies could break a number of ways.
CONNECT WITH US TODAY
Be the first to know the latest news and updates
