No constraints exist on election wagers, says watchdog, as by-elections attract $1m in bets
Over $500,000 has been bet on Polymarket on Gerry 'The Monk' Hutch in the Dublin Central by-election. Photo: Claudia Savage/PA
There are no restrictions on gambling in Irish by-elections, the industry watchdog has said, as money pours into US prediction markets.
Polymarket, which bills itself as the world's largest predictions market, has reported that over $1m has been staked on the outcome of the Dublin Central by-election, with $181,000 wagered on campaigner Gillian Sherratt — who lost Sinn Féin's selection convention to councillor Janice Boylan — and over $500,000 being bet on Gerry 'The Monk' Hutch.
The favourite, according to the market, is Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis, who has a 76% chance of winning, though only €26,711 has been staked on him. In Galway West, however, just $41,000 has been bet, with $26,000 of that being wagered on Sheila Garrity, an independent candidate who was a former campaign worker for President Catherine Connolly.
The by-elections take place on May 22.
According to the Polymarket page for the Dublin Central by-election, "the level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants". Live price movements and trade on any outcome can be tracked on the page.
In a statement, the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI) said that under Irish gambling legislation, there is no specific prohibition on gambling on politics.
However, it added that a new licensing regime is being rolled out under the Gambling Regulation Act 2024. Under the new legislation, if a person or company is providing ‘relevant gambling activities’ within Ireland, they will require a business-to-consumer gambling licence. This licensing is being rolled out on a phased basis, beginning with betting.
In the future, the GRAI says licences will set out what services an operator can offer. It added that prediction markets will be considered "betting intermediaries".
"Licensed operators will only be able to offer gambling services as set out in their licence, and they will be required to comply with any regulations that the GRAI makes under the Act. There is scope for the authority to prohibit licensees from providing particular types of betting.
"The Gambling Regulation Act 2024 is clear that providing a facility by remote means to enable others to engage in betting is “a remote betting intermediary.” Under the legislation, a bet is defined as "a payment made to participate in betting", it said.
When the Gambling Act is fully commenced, if a person or company is providing gambling activities within Ireland, they will need a licence, though none have been issued as yet.
"The GRAI began accepting and processing applications for remote betting licences, remote betting intermediary licences and in-person betting licences on February 9, 2026.
"The first licences — remote betting and remote betting intermediary — are expected to be issued by the GRAI by July 2026. Existing remote betting intermediaries currently operate under licences issued by Revenue under the Betting Act 1931 which was the previous regulatory regime in respect of betting."
The GRAI said it is "in the process of taking over responsibility of licensing for betting operators in Ireland".
"The GRAI will open applications for the other licence category types (gaming, lotteries, and business-to-business) in due course."
- Paul Hosford is deputy political editor of the
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