Tactical retweets: Musk and Zelenskyy's Twitter tussle shows gulf in mastery of social media

Ciaran O’Connor on contrasting social media practices of a billionaire and a wartime leader

With his tweet, Elon Musk helped to amplify Kremlin propaganda, dispute the sovereignty of Ukraine and suggest it should not defend itself against invaders.

This week, I realised I have at least one thing in common with the world’s richest man, Tesla CEO and investor, Elon Musk. We both spend inordinate amounts of time online; though in my defence, this is a requirement of my job.

Then again, I am not Elon Musk, and unlike Musk, this week I did not use my Twitter account to share a plan on how to end the war in Ukraine that proposed redoing the recent sham referenda “under UN supervision” for the partially-annexed regions of Ukraine, recognising Crimea as part of Russia and ensuring Ukraine “remains neutral” throughout.

Musk sought feedback for these ideas through a Yes/No poll and prompted a riposte from Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy who responded with his own poll seeking feedback on Musk.

Ukraine-Russia Peace:

- Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.

- Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).

- Water supply to Crimea assured.

- Ukraine remains neutral.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 3, 2022

Zelenskyy’s response, as explained below, demonstrated once again how his use of social media has been clever, measured and innovative at all turns since the beginning of the invasion. The incident provides a useful backdrop to explore how Ukraine’s president has used online platforms to win hearts and minds at home and abroad, and why so many now regard him as an expert in contemporary political and wartime communication.

First, some context. Though his intentions were rooted in a desire for peace, in sharing this peace plan with his 107 million followers, Musk helped to amplify Kremlin propaganda, dispute the sovereignty of Ukraine and suggest it should not defend itself against invaders. In the end, 59% of the 2.4 million respondents voted No, though Musk then claimed the poll was flawed due to the “biggest bot attack I’ve ever seen” that allegedly swung the vote.

Musk might actually have a point there, but it’s probably not the one he intended. For many, many reasons, unscientific polls carried out on social media platforms are not a reliable way to measure opinions and attitudes on most issues, never mind questions of self-determination, war and conflict resolution. Online polls are routinely manipulated, responses can be co-ordinated by a group with their own vested interests and inauthentic behaviour can influence the results. I regularly see it in the course of my work.

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In addition, push polls like this, as they’re known, are a negative campaigning tactic that reduces a complex set of questions down to a singular, overly simplistic binary choice distributed to a non-representative sample, with the poll conductor’s preferred answer usually framed as the positive Yes choice to sway respondents’ decisions.

Asking that Ukraine “remains neutral” as a way to open the door to peace also lays bare the limited extent to which Musk understands this bloody war. It’s difficult to see how a country would choose to be “neutral” while it is currently trying to repel an invasion and continues to uncover mounting evidence of suspected war crimes carried out by these invaders against its citizens.

Seemingly unsatisfied with the answers, Musk tried again. This time he tweeted to ask if “the will of the people who live in the Donbas & Crimea should decide whether they’re part of Russia or Ukraine?” This time, he got the answer he was looking for; Yes, with 59% of 2.4 million votes cast. Putin is not the only man to make use of dubious polls, it seems.

Let’s try this then: the will of the people who live in the Donbas & Crimea should decide whether they’re part of Russia or Ukraine

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 3, 2022

In this, Musk also ignored the results of the 1991 Ukrainian independence referendum in which the actual residents of Crimea and the Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk) were asked this question. Here, through clear democratic majorities, all voted to become part of an independent Ukraine free of Moscow’s rule.

Separately, Musk’s comments raise the question of why. Why make these comments now, when goodwill and support for Musk throughout Ukraine was high after his SpaceX company provided satellite internet throughout the country following the invasion? The Starlink service essentially kept Ukraine online in the face of an invading force that prioritised targeting its digital and cyber infrastructure.

Since the outbreak of the invasion, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been lauded for his use of social media. Photo: STR/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Only he really knows why, but in the past Musk has sought to deflect negative attention away from his companies by stirring controversy online, so perhaps Tesla’s recently announced 8% dip in Q3 share price has something to do with it.

Musk’s proposals were roundly criticised and condemned by many on and offline, including countless Ukrainian citizens and politicians such as the country’s outgoing ambassador to Germany, Andrij Melnyk, who replied to Musk on Twitter and told him to “fuck off,” which he described as his “very diplomatic reply”.

Zelenskyy, and likely his team of social media advisors, could have decided to take my approach and attempt to categorically dissect Musk’s ham-fisted argument, or that of his country’s citizenry. Or, Zelenskyy could have decided not to reply at all, given the many other tasks that likely fill the workday of a wartime leader. 

Instead, Zelenskyy did respond and went in a different, more succinct direction and replied with his own Twitter poll, asking his 6.7 million followers “which Elon Musk do you like more?” The options were “One who supports Ukraine,” or, “one who supports Russia,” with 79% of the 2.4 million votes opting for Ukraine.

Which @elonmusk do you like more?

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 3, 2022

What Zelenskyy did so creatively here was reply in the Twitter vernacular, turning Musk’s own method on its head. It was a Twitter clap back, Zelenskyy’s own very diplomatic reply carried out for all the world to see. It immediately presented Musk’s stance as pro-Russia, pro-annexation and anti-Ukrainian. 

More than this, it was a crowd-sourced message to Musk to not be those things. It obviously had an impact as within hours it solicited a direct reply from Musk who told the president “I still very much support Ukraine but am convinced that massive escalation of the war will cause great harm to Ukraine and possibly the world.”

I still very much support Ukraine, but am convinced that massive escalation of the war will cause great harm to Ukraine and possibly the world.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 3, 2022

Other Musk tweets issued after Zelenskyy’s interjection again stated “we are pro Ukraine.”

Social media strategy

Since the outbreak of the invasion, Zelenskyy has been lauded for his use of social media. But what does this mean and why do so many say he is an expert communicator?

What he has done so powerfully is communicate the toll of the invasion with the world and shared frequent, intimate updates online that conveyed, especially early on in the invasion, the personal impact the conflict was taking on him and Ukrainians at large.

Zelenskyy, a popular actor and comedian prior to running for president in 2019, put a human face on the invasion by regularly posting up-close, front-facing videos of himself directly on social media, mirroring the selfie format we’ve become accustomed to seeing every day online.

His updates have been a rallying call for solidarity among his citizens and a plea to politicians and people worldwide. Compare these to the infrequent, wooden, sparse, monotone and scripted addresses by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The most memorable example of Zelenskyy’s use of social media video was the clip posted on February 25, one day after the start of the invasion, showing himself late at night on the streets of Kyiv.

In the clip, Zelenskyy, dressed in his now-ubiquitous olive-green jacket and t-shirt, holds the camera phone at arm's length and films himself naming out members of his cabinet, who are standing around him, saying each is “here, here, here.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses the nation in Kyiv, Ukraine, in March. His updates have been a rallying call for solidarity among his citizens and a plea to politicians and people worldwide. Photo: Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP

This was a crucial piece of strategic communication, not only confirming that they were alive but also that they were present and accounted for in the conflict, debunking rumours that Zelenskyy had fled Ukraine.

These claims were produced and promoted by a network of state-backed and state-affiliated news organisations in Russia and disseminated on mainstream social media platforms as part of the Kremlin’s wide-reaching disinformation campaign against Ukraine, as we documented in our analysis at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, a non-profit that researches disinformation, hate and extremism online.

Zelenskyy’s role as Debunker-in-Chief has been pivotal, particularly when he addresses the Russian population in their native tongue. On one such occasion, he directly rebuked the Kremlin’s claims that it entered Ukraine to ‘deNazify’ the nation from right-wing extremists who are supposedly in charge.

In an online address, Zelenskyy, who is Jewish, said: “You are told we are Nazis, how can I be a Nazi? Tell my grandpa, who went through the whole war in the infantry of the Soviet Army and died as a colonel in independent Ukraine.”

These two examples highlight the twin outlook of Zelenskyy’s communication strategy on social media that seeks to sway the hearts and minds of those close to Ukraine and further afield.

Looking westwards, Zelenskyy uses his online platforms to share messages calling for humanitarian support, financial aid, military equipment and further sanctions against Russia. Looking east, Zelenskyy regularly reminds Russians of the shared histories and bonds between the two nations.

This smart use of social media has contributed to the sentiment that Ukraine has ‘won’ the information war. In reality, the online conflict continues to be another active front in the battle, much like it is offline.

Former US President Bill Clinton speaks to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during the Clinton Global Initiative in September in New York. Zelenskyy uses his online platforms to share messages calling for humanitarian support, financial aid, military equipment and further sanctions against Russia. Photo: AP/Julia Nikhinson

Of course, at times Ukrainian authorities have made missteps in their use of social media and used their platforms to share misleading or false information.

Most notably, they amplified claims about the ‘Ghost of Kyiv’ fighter pilot who supposedly shot down 10 Russian planes which Ukraine later admitted was a myth or propaganda circulated for morale-raising purposes.

That Musk and Zelenskyy should be brought together in a meaningless spat on Twitter is really a distraction from the reality that, despite the billionaire’s musings about peace, Russia continues to send more men across the border, hold sham votes to justify its land grab and threaten the use of nuclear weapons against the West.

And yet, this incident presents us with two unique case studies in how powerful figures use online platforms to bring their missives to the masses.

A stove stands among the debris of a destroyed house in a village in Ukraine this month. Locals have been living with no gas, electricity or running water supply since April. Photo: AP/Francisco Seco

Musk uses his voice to insult people, speculate on share prices and cryptocurrencies, wade into geopolitical waters and, most recently, promote Kremlin propaganda.

Zelenskyy uses his voice to keep the eyes of the world on Ukraine, to conduct diplomacy and to boost morale throughout Ukraine.

There are many differences between the two, but one fundamental distinction that has become apparent is that one of these figures seems to desperately want the attention of millions online, as a matter of entertainment or distraction for himself. The other, as a matter of life and death for millions of people, needs it.

Zelenskyy hits the right notes on social media, whilst Musk is out of tune.

• Ciaran O’Connor is an analyst at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, working in the Research and Policy unit