Public 'prepared to pay for a unified island', says Fine Gael

Fine Gael's 'Blueprint for a Unified Ireland' estimated that unification with Northern Ireland could cost €25bn a year, and up to €41.2bn in Year 25.

Assistant Government chief whip and Fine Gael TD Emer Currie put the 'Blueprint for a Unified Ireland' together.

Fine Gael has insisted that people are prepared to pay the cost for a unified island, even if it costs up to €25bn a year.

A new “Blueprint for a Unified Ireland” was published at the Fine Gael ard fheis this weekend.

Economic analysis done by Professor Stephen Kinsella, who acts as adviser to Tánaiste Simon Harris, found that costs to the exchequer in year one would range from around €3.2bn to €25bn.

The range would depend on the design of unification, the deal with the British government, and the harmonisation of pay, pensions, and public service provisions, along with the private sector’s adjustment to higher rates of pay and a different taxation regime.

The most adverse high-cost scenario also estimates a potential bill of €41.2bn for Year 25 after unity.

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The party’s proposals also include a new junior minister for North-South relations in a dedicated unit within the Department of An Taoiseach and the establishment of a dedicated sovereign wealth fund to deal with the potential costs of transition.

Speaking at the Fine Gael ard fheis, Emer Currie, who put the document together, dismissed the idea that costs could stymie support.

“I think people are prepared to pay the cost for a unified island,” she said. “They want to know what is behind those costs and what they would be paying for. There are discussions about healthcare that need to be had, the differences between the North and the South, what's important to people, education.

“There's a wide variety of issues that need to be addressed. Because people want this conversation. People want to talk about the unification of the island.”

The document includes modelling of the economic “cost and opportunities” associated with unification, with the Tánaiste saying his party wants to have an “honest and open conversation” on the issue.

Prof Kinsella’s findings are summarised into several scenarios on the potential cost to the exchequer across 25 years – stressing there is “no single fixed cost of unity” and that a settlement with the British government is critical in the estimates.

The analysis sets out four designs for a Unified Island — 'Unitary', 'Federal', 'Managed Integration', and 'Higher Cost', which use the status quo as a baseline — and makes projections on assumptions over whether the British government keeps accrued pensions and debt interest.

Fine Gael says a “Standing Constitutional Forum” should be established to enable discussion ahead of any potential referendum, while work on public services, taxation, pensions, welfare, economic transition, security, and future institutional arrangements is also needed.

It said there should be a minister of state for North-South relations as part of a Constitutional Planning Unit in the Department of Taoiseach.

It further says the Irish Government should create a new sovereign wealth fund to address the transitional costs attached to the possibility of a Unified Island — the Future Unified Island Fund — as well as doubling the budget allocation for the Government’s Reconciliation Fund.

However, it notes that some of its proposals require further discussion alongside the requirement for agreement on the extension of voting rights in presidential elections to citizens of Northern Ireland, strengthening NI representation in the Seanad.

The publication of the report comes shortly after Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin suggested a body — the Future Studies Initiative — should be appointed to oversee research into future scenarios for Irish unification.