Majority of Government politicians favour autumn election — poll
Taoiseach Simon Harris (centre) with Tánaiste Micheál Martin (left) and Green Party leader Eamon Ryan (right) last month. Some 44% of Fianna Fáil politicians believe that the Taoiseach will call an election before Christmas, while among Fine Gael members this figure drops to 36%.
An appetite for an autumn election has not receded among Government politicians, despite the election of Simon Harris as Taoiseach.
The majority of ministers, TDs and senators from both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael favour a general election before Christmas, results of an survey reveal.
Politicians have warned that waiting until February to call a general election could be a very dangerous tactic, citing the potential for bad weather while campaigning, low public mood after Christmas and the possibility of another trolley crisis over the winter months.
The spoke to 69 of the 106 Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil TDs and senators, to gauge when they would personally like to see an election called and when they think the Taoiseach is most likely to go to the country.
Of these, 23 (64%) Fianna Fáil members want to go to the country before Christmas, eight politicians (22%) want to wait until next year, while five (14%) stated that they didn't mind when a poll happens.
Of the 33 Fine Gael members questioned, 17 (52%) want a pre-Christmas election, 13 members (39%) would prefer to wait until the new year, and three (9%) said they don't have a preference.
However, there is a feeling among both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil that new Taoiseach Simon Harris may wait until 2025 before going to the country, even if this is not what members want.
Some 44% of Fianna Fáil politicians believe that the Taoiseach will call an election before Christmas, while among Fine Gael members this figure drops to 36%.
While there is a sense that Mr Harris may want to bed in to the role of Taoiseach and will be tempted to stay in power for the entire term, senior party members are warning against this approach.
One senior Fine Gael member said:
He pointed to the general election of 2020, stating that Fine Gael had been on around 30% in November when Leo Varadkar could have gone to the country, but instead waited and was forced to call an election after a vote of no-confidence was threated in then-health minister Simon Harris.
"We ended up on 21%," he said.
Of those who want a pre-Christmas election, going to the polls directly after a budget would be the most favoured option, with a number stating that they want a general election "before the clocks go back" in the autumn.
One Fine Gael senator said: "You don't know what way the world will be by next March, I think we will have seen more houses built, but it's just a rotten time of year for canvassing, it would put us on the back foot."
A significant factor also raised is the upcoming local and European elections.
By-elections would have to be held within six months if one or more sitting TDs win a seat in the European Parliament. Fianna Fáil's Barry Cowen, Sinn Féin TD Kathleen Funchion and Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín will be among the candidates in June's elections.
One minister cautioned the coalition would be extremely reluctant to go ahead with any by-elections as Government parties rarely do well in these individual ballots.
But one senator, who favours a 2025 election, said: "A lot of the provisions from the budget will kick in in January. Take advantage of the January/February bounce, people will have money in their pocket and be feeling more positive in general.
"If it is March, Harris is likely to wait until after Paddy's day as otherwise he will miss out on the White House visit. There would be too much at stake if we were still negotiating government while politicians are going abroad to discuss trade opportunities."
Another senator agreed that the coalition should go to the very end, stating: "Harris has publicly committed to March so unlikely he will stray from that, he wants to show the people what he can do as Taoiseach and as leader of Fine Gael, he needs every day afforded to him to do that."
One Fine Gael member, who has ministerial experience, said the election of Mr Harris has changed the outlook slightly, but he still feels that we will have an October election.
He said that when Leo Varadkar was in power he gave a 10% chance to a summer election, 80% chance of an October election and 10% on a 2025 election.
However, he has now changed those figures to a 60% chance of an October election and a 40% chance of an election next year, with a summer poll completely ruled out.
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