Labour's Bacik well placed for victory in Dublin Bay South, opinion poll suggests

According to a new Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI constituency poll, Ms Bacik is in second place on 22% behind Fine Gael’s James Geoghegan on 27%. Picture:Gareth Chaney/Collins

Labour Senator Ivana Bacik is well-placed to pull off a surprise by-election victory in Dublin Bay South, a new opinion poll suggests.

According to a new Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI constituency poll, Ms Bacik is in second place on 22% behind Fine Gael’s James Geoghegan on 27%.

However, Ms Bacik is likely to be very transfer-friendly and could overtake Mr Geoghegan in the final shake-up.

The poll suggests that both Mr Geoghegan and Ms Bacik will attract strong second and third preference votes.

Fine Gael party figures have admitted privately they fear that if Ms Bacik can poll well enough, and stay ahead of Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan, she could beat Mr Geoghegan to the seat vacated by former Housing Minister Eoghan Murphy.

Polling day is ten days away, and rather than a race between Fine Gael and Sinn Féin, it is between Fine Gael and Labour.

Ms Bacik’s poll rating is in sharp contrast to her party’s national poll rating of between 3% and 5% and is clearly a vote for her candidacy as opposed to an indication of a sudden resurgence in Labour support.

The poll suggests that both Mr Geoghegan and Ms Bacik will attract strong second and third preference votes.

Based on this poll, Sinn Féin candidate Lynn Boylan is on 13% and is unlikely to be able to challenge for the seat on that level of support while the Green Party candidate Claire Byrne is at 11% and also unlikely to challenge.

Fianna Fáil candidate Deirdre Conroy is in fifth place at just 10%.

The share of the vote for smaller parties and Independent candidates is: 

• Sarah Durcan (Social Democrats) 5%; 
• Mannix Flynn (Independent) 5%; 
• Mairead Tóibín (Aontú) 3%; 
• Brigid Purcell (People Before Profit) 2%; 
• Justin Barrett (National Party) 1%; 
• Peter Dooley (Independent) 1%. 

Remaining candidates received less than 1% support, the poll finds.

Over half of all voters (55%) in the constituency are satisfied with the Government, while 38% say they are dissatisfied, the poll suggests.

Wealthier, older and home-owning voters are most favourable in their sentiment toward the government’s performance.

Sinn Féin candidate Lynn Boylan has so far failed to break out into the numerous middle-class areas, the poll suggests. Photo:Gareth Chaney/Collins

Sinn Féin candidate Lynn Boylan has so far failed to break out into the numerous middle-class areas, the poll suggests.

According to Ipsos/Mrbi, the poll was conducted through personal in-home interviewing in the constituency between last Friday and Sunday, among a sample of 500 adults at 50 points throughout the constituency.

The accuracy level is estimated at approximately plus or minus 4.4%. The level of those expressing no view as to their voting intentions was 18%.