By-election is not a 'Punch and Judy Show' between Fine Gael and Sinn Féin

Ivana Bacik presents a potent challenge to the two frontrunners in Dublin Bay South — Fine Gael’s James Geoghegan and Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan

Labour Senator Ivana Bacik’s has said that to look at the Dublin Bay South by-election as a Punch and Judy Show between Fine Gael and Sinn Fein is disrespectful to the voters. 

Labour senator Ivana Bacik’s has said that to look at the Dublin Bay South by-election as a Punch and Judy Show between Fine Gael and Sinn Féin is disrespectful to the voters.

Formally announcing her campaign today, Ms Bacik presents a potent challenge to the two frontrunners in the campaign — Fine Gael’s James Geoghegan and Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan — in the most affluent constituency in the country.

Battling against the Labour party’s low national poll rating — below 5% in most polls — Ms Bacik’s leader Alan Kelly believes that if she can stay ahead of Ms Boylan in the election count, then she can pose a real threat to Mr Geoghegan.

For Fine Gael, this is a must-win by-election and given the length of time the party has held a seat here — including the seats of former taoisigh John A Costello and Garrett FitzGerald — this by-election is seen as theirs to lose.

With Mr Geoghegan the first out in the field, he has already come in for some stinging media coverage about his "posh boy" image, his privileged background, and the fact that he doesn’t even live in the constituency.

His bid to portray himself as a member of the locked-out generation of aspirant property owners has rung somewhat hallow, but Mr Geoghegan is a solid media performer and he is under the stewardship of another stellar communicator in Simon Harris, his director of elections.

While governments tend not to win by-elections, Fine Gael is hopeful that it can hold the seat and the bombardment of senior ministers on the campaign trail shows they are worried about their base not turning out on polling day.

While Ms Bacik has rejected the idea of a Fine Gael versus Sinn Féin, the polarisation of Irish politics between those two parties cannot be ignored.

It suits both parties to pitch themselves as the alternative to each other and it seems to be doing them no harm as they are the two leading forces in recent opinion polls.

Deirdre Conroy of Fianna Fáil, Claire Byrne of the Green Party, Sarah Durcan of the Social Democrats, Bridget Purcell of People Before Profit, Mairéad Tobin of Aontú, and Independent councillor Mannix Flynn are all contenders, but are not expected to be prominent in the final shake-up and their transfers could help Ms Bacik remain competitive at the business end of the count.

Ms Bacik is hopeful that the Labour tradition which saw Ruairí Quinn hold a seat for decades will rally behind her.

Undoubtedly, the presence of Ms Boylan makes Ms Bacik’s prospects more difficult, but should she get ahead of the Sinn Féin senator and former MEP, there is a belief she could pull off a major upset.