'EU’s ability to respond to a foreign invasion by 2030 remains in doubt'

Between 2020 and 2025, EU members increased defence spending by 79%, a response to the Russian threat and a belated effort to meet Nato spending targets. File picture

The EU’s ability to respond to a foreign invasion by 2030 remains in doubt due to a continuing reliance on the US and fragmented national defence systems, according to a report from its official auditor.

The European court of auditors (ECA) said the EU is much better prepared than before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine of 2022, but achieving its goal of defence readiness by the end of the decade would be difficult.

“Achieving defence preparedness in the EU by 2030 remains challenging,” said Marek Opioła, an ECA member who led the review of the EU’s defence policy published on Thursday. 

“There are still major difficulties such as fragmented national systems or industrial bottlenecks. We also still rely on the United States.” 

He stressed the EU could “still make major progress” if it sharply increased defence spending and rapidly expanded ammunition production.

Between 2020 and 2025, EU members increased defence spending by 79%, a response to the Russian threat and a belated effort to meet Nato spending targets. 

In November 2024, the EU met its pledge of providing 1m rounds of ammunition to Ukraine — eight months behind schedule.

The EU set the goal of defence readiness by 2030 last year, after intelligence services warned that Russia could be ready to wage a large-scale war in Europe around that time.

The bloc’s financial watchdog said major difficulties had to be overcome to reach this target, defined by a senior auditor as “having strategic autonomy” and “the ability to independently sustain high-intensity warfare”. 

The senior auditor said the EU was better prepared than 2019 when a similar review was conducted, but warned that fragmented national defence industries and “insufficient cooperation” between EU governments contributed to a risk of duplication in spending or persistent gaps in military capabilities.

The report highlights a possible tension between short-term battlefield needs and a “Buy European” policy that aims to reduce dependencies on foreign suppliers. 

Between February 2022 and June 2023, 78% of EU governments’ defence acquisitions were sourced outside the bloc, with the US alone representing 63%, according to one study cited by the ECA.

The senior auditor said purchases from the US went up after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine “which was understandable because the EU needed to find capabilities that were available quickly”. 

The official added that “early signs of improvement in that situation” were visible, although the auditors did not have complete data to draw conclusions.

The EU has set requirements that common defence spending should benefit domestic defence industries or those of closely-associated countries, such as Ukraine and Norway. 

But some flexibilities have been allowed where Europe is unable to produce critical supplies in time.

This week Ukraine asked for an exemption from Buy European procurement rules to acquire US-made Patriot interceptors using the EU’s €90bn support loan. 

European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said on Wednesday that Ukraine had requested funding “worth several billion euros” for air defences, including Patriot air-defence systems. 

A commission spokesperson said Ukraine’s request for Patriot interceptor missiles “would require a derogation” from rules requiring majority European content in military purchases under the loan. 

“The final say is with the member states and of course our hope would be that this would soon be granted,” the spokesperson said.

The Guardian