Up to 1,500 could be hospitalised with flu by Christmas week – minister

Health minister Jennifer Carroll MacNeill called on anyone vulnerable to the flu to get vaccinated. Picture: Antonio Guillem Fernandez/Alamy

There could be 1,500 people in hospitals with the flu over Christmas week, the health minister has cautioned, amid warnings of severe illness from a new strain of the virus.

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill said flu is already spreading among children, with Children’s Health Ireland (CHI) sites under pressure from an unusually high number of patients.

She called on anyone vulnerable to the flu to get vaccinated. “Our modelling shows we could have 1,500 people in hospital Christmas week with the flu,” she told Newstalk on Friday.

A new flu strain causing fear in Japan and elsewhere is now circulating in Ireland. The so-called "subclade K" variant is said to cause more severe symptoms than usual strains.

Nigel Moloney, a pharmacist at Carrigaline CarePlus Pharmacy in Cork, warned this winter is “already looking bad” here.

Referring to the National Virus Reference Laboratory, he said: “Of 19 cases of flu they genetically sequenced, 16 of those were actually this new subclade K mutation, so it is here.” 

While symptoms are the same as previous strains, he said they are “stronger and much more severe” and that “they are a lot worse (for people).” 

The vaccine used here is effective against this, although he noted new UK research showing it is slightly less effective than against previous strains. He said: 

The vaccine will certainly help to make you a lot less sick, and given how severe the symptoms are with this flu, that is really important. 

Mr Moloney has previously done work for vaccine provider Csl Seqirus.

Despite the concerns, flu vaccination uptake among healthcare workers is lower than expected.

Irish Medical Council president Suzanne Crowe described this as “an interesting question” in need of analysis. 

“Rather than castigating healthcare staff, we need to understand why some are reluctant to avail of the vaccine to protect their health and the health of their patients,” Dr Crowe said.

“A rate of 45% uptake when the target is 75% with an active vaccination programme requires genuine curiosity and engagement with staff, including the broader remit of workplace culture and care for staff.'

Latest hospital flu data 

The latest figures show 211 flu patients in hospitals, up from 140 the week before. However, hospitals are seeing some results from projects tackling overcrowding. 

The Irish Nurses and Midwives Organisation counted 9,036 people waiting on trolleys, chairs, or other temporary places for a bed during November. This is down on November last year when they counted 10,561.

At University Hospital Limerick, 1,273 people were without a bed, down from 2,110 last November. Similarly, Cork University Hospital this month reached 701 and last November 1,082.

INMO general secretary Phil Ní Sheaghdha said: “We are already being warned that this year’s flu strain has arrived early and is affecting hospital attendance and capacity.”  She called for a hospital-by-hospital breakdown of the HSE’s plans for winter to help avoid problems.

Ms Carroll MacNeill also said the trolley count is "very considerably down on last year". 

However, she raised concerns Cork, Galway, Mayo, Letterkenny, and Limerick to a lesser extent, are “particularly challenged”. University Hospital Waterford is “still zero”, she said.