Ireland needs over 1,000 new nursing home beds each year for the next 15 years
The ESRI has already projected the number of people living past 85 years of age is set to more than double by 2040. File photo: iStock
Between 15,000 and 20,000 additional nursing home beds will be needed by 2040 based on ESRI projections, the Nursing Homes Ireland conference will hear on Thursday.
The lower figure equates to an average of over 1,000 new beds every year for the next 15 years. This also assumes the number of nursing homes remains the same whether through new homes opening to replace any closures or all current homes remaining open.
Dr Brendan Walsh, Senior Research Officer at the ESRI, is set to discuss the growing crisis at the NHI annual conference in Kilkenny.
The ESRI has already projected the number of people living past 85 years of age is set to more than double by 2040. This is expected to have a knock-on effect on nursing homes.
The median age of residents is also expected to rise from 85 as measured in 2022 to 88 by 2040. This will create a need for more specialist staff and homes as people in those oldest age groups tend to have the highest needs.
Dr Walsh will talk about the progress scenario referring to changes in ageing and an expected increase in home supports over time.
The Government, for example, has been working on a statutory homecare scheme which could see funding to help families get homecare for a relative instead of placing them in a nursing home. This would allow homecare schemes to expand through the HSE and also private or voluntary providers.
Although work has started on this, a funding model is not yet chosen. Growing frustration has been aired by advocates and social policy groups at the slow pace of this reform.
Dr Walsh is expected to caution, however, even if these positive changes come in, that demand for long-stay nursing home beds is still expected to rise by more than 60%.
The conference will also hear from minister of state for older people, Kieran O’Donnell. Tadhg Daly, CEO of NHI, said choices about where to locate any new beds must also be made.
“If the limited new capacity is concentrated only in urban centres, many communities will be left behind, forcing older people to move far from their families and support networks to access care,” he warned ahead of the conference.
Investment in staffing is also needed, he added.
