Country will need 8,000 more public hospital beds by 2040, report says

A major new report by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has projected a requirement for an additional 5,091 to 7,780 additional in-patient and day-patient beds in acute hospitals. File picture

The state will need up to 8,000 additional hospital beds in public hospitals by 2040 to cope with surging demand from a growing and ageing population.

A major new report by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has projected a requirement for an additional 5,091 to 7,780 additional in-patient and day-patient beds in acute hospitals, against a backdrop of an increase in Emergency Department (ED) attendances of up to 444,000 per year on current figures, and up to an extra 1.3 million out-patient department attendances.

Funded by the Department of Health, the study projects growth in demand across a range of hospital services, largely driven by population growth and ageing.

The population is projected to increase from 5.3 million in 2023 to between 5.9 million and 6.3 million by 2040, but crucially, the number of people aged 65 years and over will increase from one in seven in 2023 to one in five by 2040 - an age cohort that accounted for over 60% of in-patient bed days in 2023. 

This growth results in a projected requirement for an additional 4,400 to 6,800 in-patient beds by 2040, an increase of between 40% and 60%, as well as an additional 650 to 950 day-patient beds by 2040, an increase of between 25% and 37% on current figures.

The government published plans in May 2024 for 3,378 new beds, excluding the National Rehabilitation Hospital, by 2031.

The ESRI said if these targets are delivered, it would surpass the projected upper range of additional requirements by that year in its report, and that this is the level of ambition needed to reach the projected 2040 requirements.

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Health minister Jennifer Carroll MacNeill said the report highlights the capacity challenges the country faces in meeting the needs of our growing and ageing population.

“Increasing bed numbers and the necessary resources and workforce requires careful long-term planning,” she said.

“I am pleased that we are already making significant strides to increase patient capacity.

“Between 2020 and 2024, we opened 1,218 new acute in-patient beds, and the Programme for Government has committed to delivering thousands more through the acute bed capacity expansion plan, new surgical hubs, and elective treatment centres.

“With unprecedented uplift in funding and workforce increases in recent years, we are targeting future capital investment where it is needed most."