Ireland must increase defence budget 'to keep Russians at bay', warns ex-military adviser

The former director for European affairs on the White House’s national security council, Alexander Vindman, called for urgent investment in air and naval capabilities.

A former White House military adviser has recommended that Ireland treble its defence budget to keep “the Russians at bay from mucking around” in Irish-controlled waters.

Alexander Vindman, a retired US army lieutenant colonel, said Ireland’s defence budget — at 0.2% of GDP — was “woefully inadequate”, and called for urgent investment in air and naval capabilities.

The former director for European affairs on the White House’s national security council said this investment was in “Ireland’s own self-interests”.

Speaking at a event organised by the Institute of International and European Affairs in Dublin, Mr Vindman said Ireland could take steps to provide more support to Ukraine without breaching the policy of military neutrality — such as providing equipment to Ukrainian border guards and investing in drone manufacture in the country.

Garda Commissioner Drew Harris and the former chief of staff of the Defence Forces, Mark Mellett, were in attendance.

Mr Vindman, a former political-military affairs officer for Russia for the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff and an attaché at the US embassies in Moscow and Kyiv, said a Trump presidency would be “a recipe for disaster for US democracy and global stability".

He said there would be no “guardrails” for his behaviour, adding that he would have a better relationship with US adversaries — such as Russia and China — than Nato allies and the EU.

He said Russian president Vladimir Putin would no longer have a “US backbone” to Nato, and that deterrence to his aggressive imperialism would be eroded, creating the danger of a “spillover and a bigger war” beyond Ukraine.

Alexander Vindman said the 0.2% of GDP spent on defence was 'woefully inadequate'. File picture: Susan Walsh/AP

Mr Vindman said China would also be “emboldened” and, in a situation where the US no longer supported Ukraine, could provide weaponry to Russia — which would be a “game changer”.

He said a Kamala Harris administration could look different, in that a lot of her security officials were more knowledgeable about Russia and better able to assess the risks of US action and inaction.

Asked about Ireland’s contribution towards Ukraine, Mr Vindman said the first issue was Ireland’s own security needs and said the 0.2% of GDP spent on defence was “woefully inadequate”.

He said: “Increasing that three-fold, or more, and investing in a combination of air surveillance, air defence, some limited amount of air power, and something in relation to maritime security would be in Ireland’s own self-interest with regard to keeping the Russians at bay, from them mucking around in national waters, the Exclusive Economic Zone. 

Speaking of self-interest that would be a good way to go

EU figures show that the average defence budget across member states was 1.3% of GDP, according to 2022 data, with Ireland spending the lowest amount.

The Government has committed to increase defence spending to €1.5bn by 2028, up from €1.21bn in 2023.

In line with a policy of military neutrality, Mr Vindman said Ireland could provide support to Ukraine border guards — including in relation to drones with surveillance capabilities or investment in the manufacture of drones in the country.