Planet's falling fertility rates will 'transform the way we live', study says

Countries generally need to have a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 in order to sustain population size, the researchers said, meaning that 2.1 children need to be born to each person who can give birth. File picture

Falling fertility rates across the planet will see populations shrink in more than three-quarters of countries by 2050, which will “transform the way we live”, according to new research.

It will rise to 97% of the world’s 204 countries by the end of the century, according to the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD).

The new figures, presented by the school of medicine at the University of Washington in Seattle and published by The Lancet, show the world becoming “demographically divided” in the coming decades due to a disparity in fertility rates in low-income countries compared to wealthier nations.

Countries generally need to have a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 in order to sustain population size, the researchers said, meaning that 2.1 children need to be born to each person who can give birth. The rate across the planet has more than halved over the past 70 years from around five children from each woman to 2.2 in 2021.

By the year 2050, the rate noted in Western Europe is predicted by the study to have fallen to 1.44, which will then drop further to 1.37 by the end of the century.

Ireland is no exception, with total fertility having fallen from 3.18 in 1950 to just 1.76 in 2021. The average age at which women give birth here was at its highest ever recorded levels in 2021 at 33.3 years.

By 2050, the total fertility rate in Ireland will be 1.54 according to the new study, dropping further to 1.40 by 2100.

The researchers noted that there is “no silver bullet” to mitigate the trends being seen, although social policies like enhanced parental leave and free childcare could provide a “small boost” to fertility rates.

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However, in reality the situation will be one which will require careful managing in terms of controlled migration as opposed to big-bang policy changes.

“Most countries will remain below replacement levels,” said Dr Natalia Bhattacharjee, co-lead author of the study. “And once nearly every country’s population is shrinking, reliance on open immigration will become necessary to sustain economic growth.”

Dr Bhattacharjee said that the implications of what declining fertility levels will mean for the world are “immense”.

“These future trends in fertility rates and live births will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will necessitate re-organising societies,” she said, adding that the situation will eventually culminate in a world where “there is fierce competition for migrants to sustain economic growth”.