Far-right poised to exploit urban-rural divide

Far-right elements were involved in the recent riots in Dublin. Picture: Sam Boal/RollingNews.ie

The far-right in Europe is poised to exploit the widening gap between city and country communities in the likes of incomes, services, and education, a new analysis has found.

The ever increasing divide between urban and rural voters is likely to lead to a shift to the right in European elections next year, the Dublin-based EU agency Eurofound said.

Ireland is among the countries to have local and European Parliament elections next year, with a number of far right figures already aiming to put themselves forward as candidates.

Eurofound authors Marie Hyland and Massimiliano Mascherini said in a blog analysis that "the growing divide between rural and urban areas is becoming an increasing threat to political trust and social cohesion". 

They said: "Far-right political movements are taking advantage of rural discontent to win seats in parliaments. With European Parliament elections taking place in 2024, this shift to the right could shape the EU for many years to come."

Political discontent is an issue that should not be underestimated, they warned.

They pointed to better wages in cities and towns fuelling the divide in the past 10 years.

"Between 2012 and 2021, the rural–urban gap in incomes increased by almost 20%. This is not surprising when we consider that employment rates have also been consistently higher in urban areas than in rural areas (this is another widening gap, albeit not as dramatic)," the authors wrote.

The rural population is falling behind in education and skills, they said.

Third level education is higher in cities with the gap with rural areas widening over the past decade, the analysis showed.

"Because levels of education and skills are higher in cities, urban areas are better equipped to reap the advantages of globalisation and technological change," the authors said.

Divides such as public services between rural and urban areas are also increasing.

The factors are all adding up to knock morale among rural voters who feel unseen and unrepresented, they said.

"Data from the spring of 2022 show significant ‘recognition gaps’ between those living in cities and those living in rural areas. 

"Recognition gaps occur when certain individuals and groups feel that their role in society and cultural identity are not valued or recognised by governments. 

"What this means in practice is that residents of rural areas are more likely to express feelings of being forgotten, ignored or disrespected by institutions," the authors warned.