Leo Varadkar refuses to say if he would lead Fine Gael in opposition

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar visiting the demilitarised zone between the Republic of Korea and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea on Thursday. Picture: Shin hyun Kyung

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has refused to give a commitment that he will remain as Fine Gael leader if the party enters opposition after the next general election.

Mr Varadkar also ruled out forming a voting pact among the Coalition parties ahead of the next elections.

Fine Gael figures believe if the party enters opposition, Mr Varadkar will not continue as leader, with sources speculating that senior ministers could also walk.

In Seoul, South Korea, Mr Varadkar was asked twice if he would give a commitment to remain as Fine Gael leader if the party went into opposition. 

In response, he said: “I don't know what the interest is in elections all of a sudden, there aren't any elections for quite some time, and my intention is to lead Fine Gael into the next general election to gain votes and gain seats and then hopefully be able to put together another government.

“I’m not even thinking as far as that at this stage,” he added.

Poor polling

It comes as poor polling and a string of resignations by Fine Gael TDs have shone a spotlight on the party's electoral fortunes and on Mr Varadkar’s leadership. 

The latest Red C poll for the Business Post showed Fine Gael on 20% support. While party sources insist that is not reflective of what might happen on election day, there is a worry about the party stagnating in the polls. 

Fine Gael's highest vote share in an opinion poll this year came in the first week of 2023, when it garnered 25% support in an Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent poll, but that was still seven points shy of Sinn Féin.

Mr Varadkar has also been hit with the announcement by seven TDs, four of whom were elected before the turn of the century, that they will not run in the next election.

The Irish Examiner understands Higher Education Minister Simon Harris, who is Fine Gael's director of elections, and the party's general secretary John Carroll have held individual meetings with a number of senators to target potential seats as the party gears up for a general election.

Within the party, one source said that Mr Varadkar's combative exchanges with Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald "could look better from the opposition benches" and allow him a chance to win back public support.

When asked if he will look to arrange a voting pact with Fianna Fáil and the Green Party for the local and European elections next year, Mr Varadkar ruled this out and said he would not be seeking such an arrangement for the general election either.

“We are separate parties with separate policy programmes and separate traditions so I think we'll go to the country in that vein.

“But I do think there are people who vote for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Greens who will want to transfer to each other in much greater numbers than would have been the case in the past and that makes sense because we've worked well together. We're getting the people's work done.” 

Mr Varadkar said there is potential for the current Coalition to continue beyond the next election and “keep populism out and keep Ireland free of populism”.

Trade mission

Mr Varadkar will hold talks with president Yoon Suk Yeol on the second day of Ireland’s trade mission in South Korea.

Mr Varadkar said he will raise many topics in his bilateral meeting, including equality for the LGBTQ+ community. 

In recent days, South Korea’s constitutional court upheld a law banning same-sex relations within the armed forces. Members of the armed forces face up to two years in prison for same-sex marriages, something that activists have said fuels violence against gay soldiers. 

Mr Varadkar said he respects the rights of any democratic country to make its own rules but this would be an issue he would raise with the president on Friday.

On Thursday, Mr Varadkar became the first taoiseach to visit the demilitarised zone dividing South and North Korea.