Current global policies will lead to 2.5C temperature rise by 2100, experts warn 

A mother helps her malnourished son stand after he collapsed near their hut in the village of Lomoputh in northern Kenya. The UN says there is a severe climate-induced humanitarian emergency in the Horn of Africa. Africa accounts for just under 4% of the world's emissions from fossil fuels.

Current government policies across the world will lead to a 2.5C temperature rise by 2100, a major analysis has found.

Hampered by a lack of cooperation and focus on short-term energy security concerns, global warming will blast right through the 1.5C temperature limit envisaged by the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement, British firm Aurora Energy Research calculated.

The Paris Agreement set 1.5C as the limit for the rise globally compared to 1850-1900 in order to stave off the very worst fallout from climate change.

Aurora, which is among the biggest power market analytics companies in Europe, said that the carbon intensity of the world economy must drop by over 80% by 2060 to even limit global warming to 2C.

It added that greenhouse gas emissions per person must fall to the level seen in Africa today.

According to global data systems analyst Statista, Africa accounts for just under 4% of the world's emissions from fossil fuels, the smallest of the world's major regions yet is the region most vulnerable to people-induced climate change.

Aurora said that in order to limit the rate of warming to 2C by the end of the century, it is "of utmost importance that non-energy-related emissions also fall with a speed at least equal to that of energy-related emissions".

Reduction targets

The carbon intensity of the global economy must drop by 84% by 2060 to limit the global median temperature rise to 2C by 2100, it claimed.

That means in essence that the US’ annual carbon emissions from burning need to fall by the equivalent of eight flights from London-Singapore for every single person living in America by 2050.

In addition, China also needs to reduce its emissions by 2060 by the same rate as a flight from London to Rome by every person living there, Aurora said.

Crucially, Aurora disagrees with the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which claims that gas demand has peaked across the world.

Aurora said that even in the 2C scenario, global gas demand would rebound in 2040 driven by regions without net zero targets before falling in the long term, in contrast with the IEA forecast.

In order to keep the 2C scenario, the world requires an unprecedented process of electrification as well as a switch to low-carbon power generation, Aurora said.

Europe will have to quadruple its installed renewables capacity to deliver 89% of total power generation by 2060, it added.

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It predicted that in the 2C scenario, Brent oil prices will peak in the early 2030s as EV penetration eats into demand and that global fossil fuel revenues could shrink by some $40tn between 2030 and 2060.

Even limiting global warming by the end of the century will require "unprecedented collaboration and mobilisation of capital" by 2100, Aurora warned.

Limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5C by 2100 is not possible without cooperation with emerging and developing economies such as India, it added.

India is rapidly developing and it is expected to become the second-largest economy in the world by 2050, according to analysts. 

However, greenhouse gas emissions in the country have spiked in recent years as the economy becomes a global powerhouse. Indian emissions are largely driven by coal-fired power plants and methane from agriculture.

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